> However, we find no evidence of reshoring or friend-shoring

I have no real horse in the race about export controls with China or elsewhere, but some notes: timelines matter here — rebuilding industrial capacity is .. not fast. Especially in the US today, much more safety-conscious, labor-rights oriented, etc, than when much of our on-shore industry got build in WW2 era.

To my mind, especially with US political cycles providing a fair amount of policy whiplash, it’s too early to see what total impact these rules have had — let’s check in on these numbers in 20 years. If export controls continued unabated over that period, I imagine we’ll have seen a fair amount of on-shoring of former supply chains.