If Intel actually implements AVX10/256 on every CPU they ship going forwards, it will eventually win simply by availability. The market has repeatedly and thoroughly rejected dispatching to different code paths based on CPU, so the only SIMD implementation that actually matters is the lowest common denominator. And since AVX10.1/256 and AVX512VL have a shared subset, that will be what people will eventually target once enough time has passed and nearly everyone has a CPU that can support it.

AVX512 will continue to give AMD some easy wins on the few benchmarking apps that were actually updated to support it, but if Intel sticks with the AVX10 plan I expect that AMD will eventually just use the double-pumped SIMD pipes for everything, just because they are the more efficient way to support AVX10/256 while retaining AVX512 compatibility.

Intel did a lot of bad choices in the past decade, but segmenting the market based on instruction set has to be one of the worst. They just chose to kill all the momentum and interest in their newest and best innovations. Hopefully they actually add AVX10/256 support to the whole lineup, because the width is the least interesting part about AVX512, the masked operations especially are a lot more important.