> The debt to GDP levels are fairly middling against other developing countries
Doom is about the future, not the present. Why are you looking at present levels instead of where the trend is taking us in the future?
Doom is about the future, not the present. Why are you looking at present levels instead of where the trend is taking us in the future?
That's one problem with looking at charts that aren't indexed/real (inflation adjusted) and/or ratios.
On it's face, our debt looks scary.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
Looking at it as a ratio, it's still not great, but we've been in similar places in the past.
Debt as a percentage of GDP.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDGDPA188S
Interest as a percentage of GDP.
In 1946 there was a lot of pent-up demand for housing and consumer durables and a young fast-growing population. Now, not so much.
It's also a stretch to call 1990 a similar place for similar reasons.
We really are in a never-before-seen place with our current population age structure (old age dependency ratio) and fertility rates.
Population growth has slowed, but there's a good chance it would increase if affordable housing was available.
We are in a unique place now, and I think we were in 1946 too. I'm not saying everything will be fine, but I don't think it benefits us to say that this is uncharted territory either.
It appears there is no further reasonable headroom for debt should a third world war break out -- the Americans will be up "shit creek without a paddle". In that scenario, roaring inflation would destroy whatever is left of the current economy as globalist trade routes collapse.
The recent wars and posturings of Western rivals (Iran, China, Russia) are no surprise. They are sharks circling what they perceive as a failing economic system in a winner-takes-all game.
I wouldn't characterize what Iran, North Korea, and Russia is doing as sharks circling a failed US economic system.
Russia making a play for control of Ukraine and control of FF/agricultural production/exports, is more about their economic reliance on on FF exports/etc and the West moving towards renewables. The fact that they're willing to throw away so much of their military and population on it shows how much of a threat they think it is.
It could also be because of a perceived threat from NATO, but if that was the case they would have backed off when other countries started taking about joining NATO. Instead they doubled down and NATO is more powerful than it was before.
Iran and North Korea and using their resources to support Russia in exchange for technology/etc.
China is making moves to strengthen their economy during all of this, but I think they're acting as opportunistic towards Russia as they are towards the West.
That's why they're being really heavy handed in negotiations with Russia. They know there isn't anywhere else for Russia to sell a lot of it's gas, and they see this as an opportunity to gain an advantage over Russia.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pip...