How Soon Might the Atlantic Ocean (AMOC) Break?

wired.com

13 pointshoward9414 comments

If the answer to that question is in TFA, I couldn’t find it (I admittedly did not read every word). The very end of TFA supposes that the tipping point might have already occurred (though unlikely) and we wouldn’t know for years. So I’m guessing no one else knows the answer, either.

Worth a skim, the general premise is interesting.

It is in the TFA. A few statistical researchers built a model with a mean tipping point of 2057. This made many people angry. Science is playing out and people are refuting with their own papers, and they’re incorporating that feedback in their next paper, etc.

> The two scientists made a plot of the numbers and a neat cluster emerged. Yes—2057. But that’s just the middle point: In 95 percent of the model’s simulations, the AMOC tipped sometime between 2025 and 2095.

Thanks for digging that out. I gave it an honest skim, and gave a thorough read in spots, but that apparently wasn't enough to find the nugget we all came for.

https://archive.is/OY6gA

Reply on news.ycombinator.com