I doubt their goal is to be universally reviled, so what's their real objective?
As much as I'm tempted to think they're just being full-on assholes, I assume they're being more strategic than that.
Basically the idea is to erode trust in the western system. They don't try to hide it anymore and seems it doesn't matter - it's quite effective anyway.
It doesn't erode trust in the western system.
Or do you?
You are using the colloquial versions of "know", and "is".
You are welcome to clarify if you'd like.
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Shiftin...
Do you disagree?
It's the mafia style, everyone knows who whacked whom.
You have to look at this from the perspective of deeply broken people, full of malice and hardcore narcissism. Even if sabotage fails, they pat themselves on the back, rejoicing that they’ve increased paranoia and confusion, and start planning the next attack.
And if it provokes a response from their would be victims that results in Russian goals somewhere being ruined, they cry crocodile tears for pity and make themselves out to be martyrs, and plan the next attack.
There are many humans in this world with thoughts and motivations that are completely alien to others.
That's the cleverness of this. You aren't trying to convince them that Russia is better. You're just trying to convince them that USA is failing compared to its previous self.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/508169/historically-low-faith-i...
Slide 22 - https://www.sciencespo.fr/cevipof/sites/sciencespo.fr.cevipo...
If you want to know how the Russian peace looks like read up on the partitions of Poland (economic exploitation, violent anti-semitism, deportations to Siberia, confiscation of property and land, russification, etc.) or the history of countries in Eastern Europe who found themselves inside the borders of Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact. Persecutions, mass deportations, mass murders, torture, economic exploitation.
I really pity the African nations who got convinced to kick out Americans and the French. They will now get a taste of Russia and it will not be pretty.
I think this level of unserious analysis is deeply unhelpful. You know people in Russia have their lives and goals, they are not suicidal maniacs. At least read some Russian media with google translate
Even those who travel abroad don't seem to change their behaviour and thinking no matter how often and how long they visit other countries. They have become the scourge of the tourist resorts that will still take their money. Europeans don't want to go there anymore. It's all vodka, loud parties, and being absolute assholes to others. They are quickly becoming the Sentinelese of Europe.
I will not read Russian media, I had enough of it in my early years when it was compulsory. Russians pillaged my country of birth and continue to be an existential threat. Russians also lied to everybody after 1989 and used the time, the trust, and the money to arm themselves and start invading and killing neighbours. There is zero truth in what Russians say. They can keep their ballet and Dostoyevsky.
There are many, many decent people in Russia who abhor this war. But people have zero influence on what is going on. If one day Putin decides to invade the Baltics, your statement about Russians not being suicidal maniacs will still hold true, but again with no relationship with the actual events.
As a Russian I was with you until this part. Russia doesn't seem to have enough money/influence for that. They get a taste of China instead. Like https://x.com/mirab_clothiers/status/1782115456045728135
Or it could be a reference to the Chinese tendency to invest in the form of giving countries loans that they are ill-equipped to pay back, and China playing very hardball on poorest country debt forgiveness.
Without any judgement, imo: China is good at creating extractive systems.
(I'll add, if you've not read it, "Dealing with China An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower By Henry Paulson" is a fantastic book)
That’s not how it works.
China is the primary threat to Western nations, not Russia. China savvily extended its influence in Africa in particular while the US was so caught up with its useless War on Terror in Iraq and Afghanistan, totally squandering its post Cold War opportunities in Africa.
> The FBI announced it disrupted a Russian AI-enhanced social media bot farm, which was designed to be an influence operation. Some of the fake profiles from bots purported to be Americans.
Some other examples:
- https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/16/1035851/facebook...
- https://openai.com/index/disrupting-deceptive-uses-of-AI-by-...
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_Black_Lives_Matter
It's probably quite effective, but we don't know how effective because it's impossible to re-run the last 10 years without this and see what would have happened.
most countries are captured by a mafia clan, this isn't a thing specific to Russia. When you have powerful intelligence services sooner or later they end up taking over.
For example, Asian theocracies understand their mission as a state and its government as furthering whatever bizarre ideas they gleamed from the scripture. They are often clan-ish in organization, but this only reflects the history of how they came to be that way, that isn't the goal.
When it comes to the European politicians, they may be very corrupt lying scumbags, but in order to get elected they need to put on a show pretending to act in the interest of the country they want to rule.
When it comes to Russia: they are simply criminals. They don't need to pretend to want to make their country better off. Not in the sense the same corrupt lying European politician would. In prison terms, they try to prove themselves as the higher cast. As those who are allowed (and even required) to humiliate the lower cast.
It's highly unlikely that Russian intelligence service is anything special. But they aren't the ones calling the shots that's for sure. They are just a part of the country-sized prison.
I've got a lot of mileage out of the assumption that every such act is supposed to send a message both to Russia's enemies and citizens.
The message being "we are everywhere".
Should anyone try to start working with the enemy, like the helicopter pilot Maxim Kuzminov, they will be found and executed.
EDIT: Navalny's return to Russia raised eyebrows in the west. I think he was aware that he would be targeted anyway, so might as well have it happen on his own terms.
If you are untouchable, don't care about the people, and can keep the people in check, the economy doesn't matter. You can live in wealth and comfort, while your people face famine and poverty. And the situation can be stable for many decades.
He is untouchable because of the cost of removing him, not because he is so well protected.
Western civilization, including most of the infrastructure, assumes good intentions of those around. How many times have teenagers independently realized the chassis they could cause just by pushing a waiting pedestrian into traffic? Trains have always been noted as an easy target.
> An extraordinary email uncovered under freedom of information laws raises serious questions about whether Bellingcat, the “open source” collective widely cited by mainstream journalists and loved by the CIA, collaborates directly with Western intelligence agencies.
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/11/30/bellingcat-collusion-west...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/06/02/grayzon...
> correction > A previous version of this article incorrectly said that leaders of the online news site Grayzone had received payments from Iranian media, according to recently unearthed documents. The documents show that only one of the site’s editors received such payments. The article has been corrected.
If you want to paint bellingcat as a tool of the CIA, you have to prove their claims to be false. If the CIA pays bellingcat to produce only factually correct information, that is still useful.
As to be reviled, some don't care, as long as they're feared.
Here's Keir Giles, who wrote a related book, talking a bit. https://youtu.be/j8wVuHMAEHg?t=688
Russia is operated by straight-up criminals. And I don't mean white-collar corrupt politicians. They are literally people who committed often very violent crimes. For instance, Putin is implicated in a number of "hits" on law enforcement officers, investigators etc. He was not the one executing the "hits", but he was likely directly involved in the crime. A lot of his associates have done often long time behind bars. For example, his puppet assigned to rule over Ukraine (the one who was deposed in the "revolution of dignity" which set in motion the present conflict) started his career as a gang robber: he, with his friends broke into an apartment, tortured the owners while taking their belongings.
These people have a mental model of the world defined by the prison lore. They have a bizarre set of rules which define what honor is: "honor" (the prison kind of) is the central value / virtue in this system. In this model, the world is divided into "suckers" and "men". "Men" are allowed to humiliate the "suckers" in whatever way they want. In fact, if they don't, they might as well join the "suckers". In this system, anyone who shows any kind of compassion to the "suckers" is him/herself a "sucker". Europeans or anyone who wants to live in a society that values any human life thus is automatically a "sucker".
This is why Russians think and treat Europeans with contempt and disdain. They don't think it to be immoral to steal from a European, or to assault one etc.
It's also "honorable" to accept the risks associated with humiliating the "suckers". To prove how much of a "man" someone is that is. It's actually better to die while proving your place is among "men" than to surrender and live like a "sucker". So, they don't care about international consequences of their sabotage in France today. At least not in the sense how another European country might've cared, should they engage in something similar.
> "revolution of dignity" which set in motion the present conflict) started his career as a
Deposed by the maidan's "revolution of dignity" president of the Ukraine Yanukovich had not been "assigned to rule over Ukraine", but elected in competitive voting, that OSCE certified as democratic and "organized in a transparent manner."
You are entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts.
I try hard to avoid getting conspiratorial in my head, so I tend to leave the thought around that point, after all, it's just a thought. :)
Because they stand no chance fighting fare and square.
Believe it or not -- their initial goal was simply to gain respect.
They actually thought the Ukraine invasion would be a walkthrough, and that of course Western countries would whine and moan about of a -- but ultimately they would respect Russia for its audacity and boldness, that Russia would emerge with greatly enhanced stature over its historic rivals, and a new era of Russian gravitas and self-assuredness would begin.
So yes - it was all definitely quite strategic, in theory. But things didn't go as they planned of course, so now they're fighting like a cornered animal.
Except now the fight isn't for "respect", and it certainly isn't about Ukraine -- but rather their own physical and political survival.