Seems possible, but there are still many sizable voting blocs that will endure a lot of hardship before they decide to take the dole.
- whites without a college degree benefit most from anti-poverty programs
- and ACA
Among the 65-and-older group, who receive social security, non-whites represent 1/3, then 1/4, then 1/5 as you ascend by decade.
It’s possible non-college whites, as a bloc, don’t know this. Put another way, if UBI redistributes those programs, they might gain some awareness of their best interests. Or, UBI could be phrased in a way that convinces them it hurts the right people instead of them.
What is the base-rate here though? Is it vastly different than for the general population? Otherwise this sounds like a base-rate fallacy, to say anybody is "benefitting more".
Social security will remain solvent until 2034, which is the first year Gen-X will start retiring. The age bracket for people who are now 48 is closest to 50/50 white. When they retire, in 2041, the entire nation will coincidentally pass 50/50. I think those stats are enough for the GOP to abandon social security in the long term.
[0] The Social Security Administration https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/projections/populations.html...
[1] Pew https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/07/30/most-comm...
[2] The Atlantic, 2018 https://archive.ph/EZ3ds