At the end of every trading day, news reporters confidently state the reason behind whatever stock rose or fell that day. They must be very wise as they don’t seem to interview anyone before making these proclamations.
"I did everything perfectly, but stuff outside my control blew up my otherwise winning trades - it would have been even worse if not for my quick thinking" is the correct answer for when your boss asks "Why did you lost $50million today?".
It is what he told his boss back in the 00's when he was in your seat and it is what some junior will tell you in 20 years time when you are in the corner office.
The less datapoints you have, the easier it is to make a line that fits.
We’re great at pretending to understand, masters at nodding wisely.
People have even convinced themselves that when they pretend to understand and nod along like a master that they themselves have obtained mastery level understanding of the subject.