I think GPT5 will be the signal of whether or not we have hit a plateau. The space is still rapidly developing, and while large model gains are getting harder to pick apart, there have been enormous gains in the capabilities of light weight models.
I think GPT5 will tell if OpenAI hit a plateau.
Sam Altman has been quoted as claiming "GPT-3 had the intelligence of a toddler, GPT-4 was more similar to a smart high-schooler, and that the next generation will look to have PhD-level intelligence (in certain tasks)"
Notice the high degree of upselling based on vague claims of performance, and the fact that the jump from highschooler to PhD can very well be far less impressive than the jump from toddler to high schooler. In addition, notice the use of weasel words to frame expectations regarding "the next generation" to limit these gains to corner cases.
There's some degree of salesmanship in the way these models are presented, but even between the hyperboles you don't see claims of transformative changes.
buddy every few weeks one of these bozos is telling us their product is literally going to eclipse humanity and we should all start fearing the inevitable great collapse.
It's like how no one owns a car anymore because of ai driving and I don't have to tell you about the great bank disaster of 2019, when we all had to accept that fiat currency is over.
You've got to be a particular kind of unfortunate to believe it when sam altman says literally anything.