The LMSys Overall leaderboard <https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard> can tell us a bit more about how these models will perform in real life, rather than in a benchmark context. By comparing the ELO score against the MMLU benchmark scores, we can see models which outperform / underperform based on their benchmark scores relative to other models. A low score here indicates that the model is more optimized for the benchmark, while a higher score indicates it's more optimized for real-world examples. Using that, we can make some inferences about the training data used, and then extrapolate how future models might perform. Here's a chart: <https://docs.getgrist.com/gV2DtvizWtG7/LLMs/p/5?embed=true>

Examples: OpenAI's GPT 4o-mini is second only to 4o on LMSys Overall, but is 6.7 points behind 4o on MMLU. It's "punching above its weight" in real-world contexts. The Gemma series (9B and 27B) are similar, both beating the mean in terms of ELO per MMLU point. Microsoft's Phi series are all below the mean, meaning they have strong MMLU scores but aren't preferred in real-world contexts.

Llama 3 8B previously did substantially better than the mean on LMSys Overall, so hopefully Llama 3.1 8B will be even better! The 70B variant was interestingly right on the mean. Hopefully the 430B variant won't fall below!