Russia's stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out
economist.com
economist.com
On the other hand, I'm worried about a deescalation path as they become desperate after conventional weapons and equipment are depleted.
(And because HNers love straw men attacks, I think any compromise by Ukraine on their sovereign territory is unacceptable)
Russia recently mentioned it themselves they they had no problems with Finland and Sweden joining it.
Regarding Russian imperialism. It's quite the coincidence Russia is more interested in the resource rich area of Ukraine and they started "the little green men" invasion a year after Ukraine setup gas exploration on Crimea ( with shell)
Oh wait. It's no coincidence
I'm not sure who you're considering as "no one", but looks like you're trying to speak for a lot of people.
Just because Russia failed to deter Finland and Sweden to join, doesn't mean that they didn't, or don't have major problems with it.
In fact it was not only a major grievance, it was part of Russia's ultimatum in December 2021 before invading Ukraine [0] - stating that FINLAND, SWEDEN, ALL SOVEREIGN STATES IN EUROPE LOST THEIR CAPACITY TO DECIDE ABOUT THEIR DEFENSIVE ALLIANCES AND THEIR DEFENSE POLICY.
Russia literally wanted to control and decide foreign and decency policy of o sovereign countries, so yeah, you need to review your facts with the documented evidence.
(Also, in case you didn't know, this violates many important documents the USSR and Russia signed in the past.)
As for Russia interests, you also seem to forget that Russia tried to take Kyiv and topple the government. Just because Ukraine managed to defend itself doesn't mean that suddenly Russia is only interested in the only land they managed to steal so far.
You also seem to forget occupied territory in Georgia, and they reinforced that they will protect the current pro russia party in Georgia[1] - perhaps a new Belarus is brewing?
It looks like you have a very selective memory.
[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin%27s_December_20.... [1]https://kyivindependent.com/russia-announces-willingness-to-...
> In fact it was not only a major grievance, it was part of Russia's ultimatum in December 2021 before invading Ukraine
Russia invaded in 2014, not in 2021... After Ukraine landed a landmark deal about gas with Shell
This predates your claims.
I'm not ignoring that Russia tried to topple Kyiv ( it tried to topple more countries than just that). But their primarely target is the east of Ukraine ( resource rich ) and Crimea ( for gas and their naval fleet).
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/10/ukraine-russ...
- https://www.reuters.com/article/business/ukraine-signs-landm...
TLDR: I think we mean the same, but the typo caused confusion :)
Ah, in that case, yes we agree - I even doubt anyone without a political agenda ever thought about that. I would even dare to say most people didn't even know the purpose of NATO, or even cared about it.
Now they know.
> Russia invaded in 2014, not in 2021... After Ukraine landed a landmark deal about gas with Shell
Yes but in 2014 the narrative was to "protect ethnic Russians", and not annex territory, that's what I meant by invasion and what set apart the 2022 invasion as its own event - but you're correct, its a continuation of the 2014 invasion.
I think this might be more than about resources. Russia has plenty of land and resources.
My take is more about the public perception of Ukraine, which Russia used to call "brothers" but always looked at them was an inferior ethnic group, and they made sure to make them pay heavy prices as a reminder for being an inferior people to Russians. That's why I think the question is:
What would Russians think of Putin if Ukraine joined and thrived in the EU, with better standards of living than Russia, as a democracy?
Of course, resources play a role in this, because Ukraine can never be a successful democracy for the Russian regime, it would be their end.