Ask HN: Is Apple on the decline? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Is Apple on the decline?

6 pointsEzGraphs22 comments

There have been a number of stories recently indicating that development of new/updated Apple products has sort of stalled. A few die-hard Apple fans I know have migrated recently to non-Apple products (e.g. from iPhone to Android). Is excitement about Apple beginning to wane? Apple is obviously on a solid footing financially but are "alpha geeks" now are finding their shiniest new toys elsewhere?

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I don't think so. The WWDC presentations yesterday still contained only a fraction of demos for what's coming in iOS6. If things were bad, I don't think they would have added so much.

I understand how people can think this, seeing how the Mac Pro lacks a compelling update, but Apple seems to have its own mercurial schedule these days. Just when you think they've forgotten or ignored something, BAM!, they announce a big change.

Still to come is a new iTunes and improved store discovery. Neither of these are small things.

And iOS still has many strong apps Android doesn't. The real challenge will be what happens when Windows 8 tablets start showing up and devs create for it.

The real challenge will be what happens when Windows 8 tablets start showing up...

It also seems like there have been more stories lately that portray Microsoft and its products in a more positive light....

For most people, Windows 8 is really an unknown. I've seen videos and read posts, but until it's out and can be handled, it's all like a movie trailer to me. Android hasn't gained the tablet traction of iOS, so maybe Windows 8 will. It still has very large number of devs.

I'm not sure I share your enthusiasm for Windows 8. I tried a rough beta awhile ago and it was pretty bad (that's coming from a guy that grew up on Windows and didn't switch to Mac till 2007). And even then I still use Windows for development testing here and there.

That said, the thing that really nails it for me, and I suspect many others (putting aside development reasons), is the integrated experience. I love the fact that my iPad, iPhone, and Mac work with each other, etc... And once you're in that type of environment, and you have money invested in Apps, etc.. its incredibly difficult to want to move away especially when the experience is great (we can argue the semantics of what constitute as great but lets keep it simple and say good enough for most people).

The move from Windows to Mac was not a difficult one (at least for me). There was no integrated environment and as far as software, new software releases come out all the time so an upgrade or new purchase was going to happen sooner or later. I suspect that a lot of adopters that will be adopting Windows 8 will most likely be existing Window users. They will still dominate the shares in volume but I suspect new Apps on Windows at this point will be a challenge getting Mac users to switch off.

Are "alpha geeks" leaving? No. Apple's never been stronger in that domain. Conferences are virtually 100% MacBooks with a smattering of ironic Dell or Lenovo systems. If anything it's even stronger since there's even more iPad presence.

The people who are leaving are technology hipsters. They want to use the things that haven't become popular, that are unappreciated. Apple's too mainstream to be cool for people like that. They want problems to solve, things to fiddle with, not finished products that anyone can use. They want challenges and bragging rights for getting it to work.

It's not a case of elitism as easy as that would be to see. It's just that Apple's platform is, as far as hackers go, quite "done" and there's not much untamed land to occupy. The rugged frontier is far beyond iOS and OS X.

I'm sure a few of these people are working on a Raspberry Pi phone.

Some % of users of anything is always unhappy. I'm unhappy with the Android phone I've got because it has no official ICS yet, then I instal CM-based ROMs which aren't perfect and get mad when the device has trouble.

It seems that Apple has one of the lowest % of unhappy users, and that means it will not decline, but thrive...because they care about the experience so much.

I use an Android phone. I primarily use Win 8 consumer preview (sometimes Win 7 or Ubuntu). I dislike Apple for many reasons. However, I bought one of the new Macbook Airs yesterday. I'm going to dual-boot Win 8 on it. Currently, they are just the best hardware for the price when it comes to ultrabooks in my opinion.

When it comes to iOS, I don't think iOS or the Apple ecosystem will be the dominant ecosystem. Their products are simply too expensive for the majority of the world to afford, plus I think a merger between tablet and computer OS like Win 8 is the future of computing. However, It think they will continue to dominate the high end tech field, which has way better profit margins.

Would love it if you could share your experience running Win 8 in dual boot on the new Macbook Air. ( I am also considering this option)

I live in Ann Arbor, MI, and 90% of the laptop users (in coffee shops or other public locations) use an Apple. So, from what I can see, they don't appear to be declining.

Thats interesting. I've always thought that Apple was mainly dominant in Silicon Valley, and MAYBE other tech hubs but thats pretty interesting.

They're mainly dominant in coffee shops---their overall laptop share is less than 10%.

That's more than any other laptop brand. Plus, Apple just has 5-6 models, whereas the other brands dilute their offerings with 20-30 models each.

Very true. But the 'coffee shop metric' makes it sound like they dominate laptops the same way they dominate tablets (where the iPad is something like 60% of the market), and that's not the case.

I assure you in the Valley its not just in coffee shops. I've lived here for 5+ years and the mass majority of folks I come across are Mac users. While its true Mac shares are probably still single digits, in this region, they are dominating.

I don't doubt it. I just thought it was funny that coffee shops were mentioned specifically in multiple posts. Probably not a good random sample.

SV is well ahead of the bell curve on technology domination. While conference rooms full of MacBooks may be passe' or declining in the valley, the ubiquity of Apple gear in conference rooms east of the Rockies is still a very new thing.

If it's old and tired in Oakland, its still new and shiny in Oakbrook. :-)

In Athens, GA (home of UGA) it is the predominant laptop in all of the coffee shops as well. Sometimes I bother counting and it is about 90% Apple laptops or iPads.

On the decline? Of course not. Have they peaked? Maybe.

Isn't decline the only thing to do after a peak?

You could plateau post-peak.

No. The iTV is going to be a very big deal. Not sure what Apple will do for an encore after that, but it should keep them on top and growing for the next several years.

I would not say that Apple is on the decline, but I do think that their products have become less exciting as of late. For me, at least, I am much more excited about the next version of Windows (8 and Phone 8) and Android then I am about the next version of OSX and iOS.

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