Even depending upon CyanogenMod has failed me. T-Mobile loves getting non-standard devices and then not releasing drivers that could help boost their own popularity - likely for IP reasons. I have owned dev phones in the past, and this was my first consumer device, and coincidentally the first Android device that I could not easily unlock and update on my own.
No, you can't compare a first gen Android device, but you sure as hell can compare a device more powerful than some netbooks.
Chances are iOS6 will have a higher percentage of iOS users than ICS of Android users after the first day or so.
A quick look round a random sample from one of the big high street dealers here in the UK shows that a fair number are still shipping with 2.3.