1) Big piles of money 2) Enough of a moat that there's no immediate threat from competition
#2 drives a lot of the desire to innovate, the hope being that by the time competition catches up, you've got so much new stuff that they're back where they started.
The closest thing I can think of in the tech space now is Apple with consumer hardware moat. The other big players are still cannibalizing and copying each other's business segments.
This would protect it from (at least certain types of) C-suite predation presumably.
Yeah, impressively wrong gp! 1984 was when they were broken up by Justice Department.
You just described google 10 years ago. And I would argue they have been on a downhill slop ever since.
So I think its something else, perhaps great leadership at the right time. Google certianly had the talent, but pichai has been an awful steward.
The government allowed Bell to maintain its monopoly position with the understanding that Bell Labs would work for the public good. In other words, Bell was unable to capitalize on what Bell Labs created. Bell Labs, in hindsight, is so significant because everyone else was able to take their research and do something with it.
Google has given us things here and there (the LLM craze stems from papers published by Google), but it seems most of the research they are doing stays within Google. For example, I expect you will struggle to find what you need to start a self-driving car company based on Waymo’s work.
> Google certianly had the talent
Including Bell Labs alumni. They used their time to create Go. If that isn't game changing, perhaps Bell Labs was also a product of its time?
We now see more achievements made each year than Bell Labs achieved in its entire history, but because of that there is no novelty factor anymore. It is now just the status quo, which doesn't appeal to the human thirst for something new. Mind-blowing discoveries made today are met with "meh" as a result.
It's kind of like a long-term relationship. In the beginning feelings are heightened and everything feels amazing, but as the relationship bonds start to grow those feelings start to subdue back down to normal levels. Without halting innovation for a time (perhaps a long time), to the point that we start to forget, I'm not sure there is any way to bring back the warm fuzzies.
A lot of people were very recently very upskilled on the government's dime. A shitload of Navy personnel had just been trained on things like electrical engineering to better understand the radios and radars they were operating, and others were taught how computers worked and accidentally turned into early software developers.
Labor was in short supply so companies had to provide significant benefits and eventually pay to make their business work. Low level labor making more money directly enriches a majority of Americans at the time, and a rich base like that has more resources to devote to buying goods but also investigating WHICH goods are worth it, ie making market competition actually work instead of just being about who has the lowest sticker price, which is a direct result of modern americans being dirt fucking poor in money, time, attention, resources, etc. A shortage of labor and therefore increase in the wealth of the everyman may have also contributed to the renaissance.
The US was still PUMPING money into basic sciences and basic technology research. This is especially useful for materials science which feeds a lot of engineering.
So many people had been recently put into such high positions that there wasn't as much of a "Management class", workers were managing workers. People could focus on doing things instead of office politics, ass covering, and pretending to look busy to people who have no freaking clue what they are managing.
Germany lost IP protections for many things. This results in a fertile ground for innovation, because everyone can freely make a widget that matches the now invalid german patent X, so there is high compatibility in widgets, while also being high incentive to improve your version of Widget X in some way so you can patent that improvement, meaning there's a lot of exploration going on in the solution space. Patents explicitly freeze investment into large solution spaces, especially with how vague modern patents are, how incompetent and undertrained/understaffed the patent office is, and how hard it is to get a court to invalidate bullshit patents.
Basically all those things businesses insist are bad made the world better for consumers, and more importantly, people. State investment into the population paid huge dividends. Who could have guessed.
They got more lucky with Go than with either Limbo or Oberon-2, thanks to Google moat, Docker pivoting from Python to Go, Kubernetes pivoting from Java to Go, both projects hiting gold with devops community.
Google itself keeps being a Java and C++ shop for most purposes outside Kubernetes.
Punchline is without Google's moat, Go would have gone the way of Plan 9 and Inferno.
Who are also the Go guys, but we already know that as it was already talked about much earlier in the thread. If you have some reason to return to that discussion, let it be known that you have not made yourself clear as to why.
> Punchline is without Google's moat, Go would have gone the way of Plan 9 and Inferno.
And that relates to the topic at hand, how? I am happy to wait. No need to rush your comments. You can get back to us when your conclusion that connects this all back to what is being talked about is fully written.
Failed twice to create anything else, only succeeded yet again thanks to Google moat and a set of lucky events caused by Docker and Kubernetes rewrite in Go, followed by their commercial success.
Also interesting that you consider UTF-8 to be a failure. From my vantage point, that was, by far, the most successful thing they created. Nearly the entire world's population is making use of that work nowadays. Most people can only dream of failing like that.
That conclusion, though... We still have no idea what this has to do with the topic at hand. Again, don't let me make you feel rushed to get your replies out. I am happy to wait until you are complete in writing that.
Explaining what any of this has to do with the topic at hand is definitely not a success. Is this supposed to be your admission that you have no idea what you are trying to say?
Don't forget Microsoft ever since the early 90s or so. And I would argue they haven't produced much usable stuff in the research realm at all.
So I think it's more than just #1 and #2. There's also a #3: a national culture where doing great things is seen as more important than simply maximizing shareholder returns. The US had that many decades ago when it sent people to the Moon, but it lost it sometime after the 1980s.
It would be such a breath of fresh air from all of the dollar-maximizer companies that we seem to be stuck with now.
If this alternate timeline where giant companies are autonomous creatures were to be, why would there be shareholders?
Not sure if true but i read a funny: bezos entire fortune could keep the pentagon afloat for 2 whole weeks.
Because that's what was asserted to be in this alternate timeline. An alternate-alternate timeline could have no companies, sure, but the discussion is centred around a specific alternate timeline.
You need a playhouse of innovation, but you also need a pipeline of taking that innovation and making lots of money/practical applications. And you need the interaction between people doing practical work and feeling limitations and the playhouse trying stuff out.
Bell Labs worked because AT&T had huge field operations, a huge automation problem (telephone switching and billing), and a huge manufacturing arm for telco equipment and customer equipment, and a reputation for solving problems related to communication. Small innovations easily contributed to the bottom line, and large innovations enabled massive expansion of communication. Also, there's a huge benefit from research being connected to scale --- Bell labs innovations were likely to be applied in AT&Ts businesses quickly which informs future innovation; if you're an unconnected playhouse of ideas, it's hard to know if your innovations can be applied.
For better or worse, things are less integrated now. Telcos still have large field operations, but they don't usually manufacture the equipment. Automation of telephone switching is so complete, I don't know if there are any operators anymore. Billing for usage is very limited.
You see some companies developing the processors in equipment they use and sell, which is more integrated than when it was all Intel/AMD/Qualcomm.
Of Arianaspace, Blue Origin, Rocketlab, SpaceX, United Launch Alliance: only Rocketlab is publicly traded.
As in Ariane Space, wholly owned by Airbus SAS (ex EADS) and listed on Euronext Paris, FWB, CAC 40, DAX and Euro Stoxx 50?
In the same vain, indices / trackers are not exchanges.
I would disagree. C# and F# have been good. Advances in Haskell. AR advances. Those are all interesting, just off the top of my head.
For a while, but they seem to have faceplanted in this realm.
Today, you can license your profits to Ireland or some other off-shore holding company and never have to choose.
This is a bad example. The only reason the US achieved it is because the Soviets ate their lunch over and over and over again.
At some point they got the idea that because they made so much money, new innovations could not be valuable if the profits would likely be insignificant compared to the existing oil gusher.... which is stupid, because nothing is ever gonna look that good early on, so they took on the persona of a flaky ADD schemer -- like Cosmo Kramer from Seinfeld -- always scheming with some new idea, but never with the perseverance to stick with it for more than 25 minutes before moving on to something else -- because what can possibly ever compete with ads?
Google actually tried to be a "fuck you investors, we're gonna do research" company with the supershares, but they screwed up:
A big mistake they made, which then got replicated throughout the industry, was issuing stock to employees. It meant that even though Larry and Sergey had supershares and no shareholders could countermand their beliefs, the employees (especially middle managers) could, by changing their work decisions to try to boost the stock, thus inoculating the company indelibly with the wall street short term thinking disease that the supershares were supposed to have prevented.
It was pathetic how interested in the share price the average L4 Google employee was when I was there in the mid-teens, at least around the quarterly vest date.
Whoops. Should have listened to Buffet-- never give out stock. Give performance bonuses, but never stock. You cannot depend on a large mass of people like that to stick to a higher purpose and not get tempted by the money.
What was influencing decisions was just the same as always: ad revenue. I think people who worked outside of ads at Google probably didn't get the sense of it. I came into Google as part of a competition crushing, monopoly focused acquisition, so I started off cynical. I could see right away what Google was, just a money printing machine with everything else they did a way to flush some of the excess gravy away. And because of that it all lacked purpose or real motivation.
And into that void just crept more and more careerism and empire building.
Agree about the ADD thing, but I think it's more a product of Perf economy than stock price.
I lasted there 10 years for lack of anything else worthwhile to go to in my geo-region, and because the money was too good to pass up. But what a weird, weird, weird place. Wandering around the MTV campus was like being in a real life Elysium (movie) or something. I could never figure out what all those people were doing between free meals. I felt guilty taking the money, the whole time.
> I could see right away what Google was, just a money printing machine with everything else they did a way to flush some of the excess gravy away. And because of that it all lacked purpose or real motivation.
This is precisely how I would summarize it too. Very well stated.
> Agree about the ADD thing, but I think it's more a product of Perf economy than stock price.
That I agree with, and I already regret implying stock was a bigger part of it than Perf/Promo-- I just wasn't thinking about them when I wrote that.
Perf was a bigger factor for sure from our ground level (L3/L4/L5 presumably) and was the main reason I left, as all I saw around my on my team was people doing things that added zero value or even subtracted it, but at least they created a new project that would sound good for Promo committee. Managers helpfully shepherded their team in that direction, which was kind and all for growing our careers and helping us get more slop from the trough, but it still felt gross. I couldn't bear seeing that as my future.
Sometimes, when I look at the housing market, or think about colleges for my daughter though, I regret not playing a long a little longer. I don't know.
THAT SAID: I don't think the stock incentives affected decision making at your or my level, but at higher middle management levels, where GSUs started to become huger both in absolute value and percentage of compensation. At the levels of the people actually deciding what products to close down or pursue. I wasn't up at that level so this is just a theory I admit.
Yeah, fair enough -- I still don't know if I've done a good job of successfully explaining to myself what the fuck it was I experienced working there and why, but it sounds like you and I had very very similar experiences.
Everything about the internal incentive structure was fucked up and incentivized very low value producing behavior.
And yet, I did learn some really valuable things there
- napa cabbage is delicious
- celery root is a thing
- fresh made pasta is better
- quiche and arugula pair great together
- oh my god legit ramen is amazing
Oh wait, outside of the food:
- monorepos, with the right tooling, are unbeatable. all the monorepo haters just don't have the right tooling. google did
- doing meetings right, with agendas and minutes, is also unbeatable, strictly better and more effecient than the alternative
- doing planning right, by circulating proposed design plans for comments, is strictly more effecient than the alternative
- doing cloud deployment right -- this is irrelevant now, most everyone knows how to do this now while google is stuck with legacy borg configs, but for a while, google actually was far ahead of the industry on this
Despite having some fundamentals like that that made certain things way way more effective, it was squandered pursuing cockeyed goals.
I was always a square peg in the round hole there, and I have no idea how I lasted 10 years. I was at L4 the whole time and never made the move to even try for L5 because the perf process seemed like such stressful garbage to me and I was perfectly fine with my already generous compensation.
I miss that kind of $$, but oh well. It got to the point I couldn't stand it anymore, and after watching the insane growth in hiring... I knew layoffs would be coming.
Well, if you gathered this big mass of people by dangling a nice pay and stock options in front of them then yeah, it does seem a bit odd to lament they are tempted by money.
How dare someone look out for their own financial well-being!
(2) It is very unpleasant to know that what you are doing day in and day out adds no value to anyone else's life and is just busywork to trick the system into giving you a paycheck. It's not that different from being on unemployment and having to do the busywork of proving you applied to N jobs per week.
Im kinda curious what machine learning or llms could make from such a dataset. If enough people proposed something similar funding shouldn't be an issue. perhaps there is even an apples vs oranges metric for quality to be had.
I’ve also seen it with biotech companies like Genentech. They are making money hand over fist, more and more each year, so they can try for moonshots and give researchers a lot more leeway to do things their way.
But once the money dried up, it was mostly gone. Got bills to pay and need to show returns on R&D in the near term.
Otherwise 1+2 result in the C-suite deciding to divert all that cash to their pockets. Reference: the past 40 years of big business
I like public research too, I think there should be a hell of a lot more of it. It just isn't the only viable player.
Hunger and some money.
The closest I every came to this was Australia's DSTO in the late 1980s. The management was technical and cared deeply about their people, the development of those people and making a positive technical contribution.
An interesting recollection of Bell Labs:
https://quello.msu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Memories-N...
I think it's not about recreating Bell Labs, but doing something better that will fit in with today's technical ecosystem. Are entry barriers lower today, or is that part of the problem: low entry barriers mean people don't have to congregate to get sufficient resources?
SpaceX right now is in a very similar position.
Other commenters noted that Google and Microsoft had big piles of money and a decent moat. They have not created anything like Bell Labs. Google tried, with DeepMind.
The problem is that companies used to think about 5,10,20 years out. Modern companies are gauged and gauge themselves by metrics that are quarterly or annual. They, to borrow from The Fast and the Furious, are living their life one business quarter at a time.
I don't think you can build something like Bell Labs, PARC, or the Lockheed-Martin Skunkworks with short-term thinking.
And that’s entirely separate from the fact that Generative AI wouldn’t even be a thing if not for the research that Google published.
The Open Compute Project is great though, and MSR does awesome research across many domains too, as does Alphabet.
"Due to a 1956 consent decree in settlement of an antitrust case, the Bell System was forbidden from entering any business other than "common carrier communications services", and was required to license any patents it had upon request. Unix could not, therefore, be turned into a product. Bell Labs instead shipped the system for the cost of media and shipping.
...
In 1983, the U.S. Department of Justice settled its second antitrust case against AT&T, causing the breakup of the Bell System. This relieved AT&T of the 1956 consent decree that had prevented the company from commercializing Unix. AT&T promptly introduced Unix System V into the market. The newly created competition nearly destroyed the long-term viability of Unix, because it stifled the free exchanging of source code and led to fragmentation and incompatibility. The GNU Project was founded in the same year by Richard Stallman."
These innovations don’t always have to be “marketed” to be shared. Things like this get developed and used internally, and then sometimes the company likes to brag about their accomplishments, even if it’s not an externally facing product.
If you’re a monopoly with no practical competition, sharing your accomplishments gets you good will and has little downsides. But if you’re Microsoft, and one of your big moats and competitive advantage is the massive fleet of data centers you’ve been building up over the years, you don’t want to hurt yourself by giving your competition the information they need to build new, more efficient data centers.
it was Google's research that led to the current LLM revolution
But nowadays, the valley looks more for "scalability' projects, things that will sell to millions of people.
He blamed the cost of living/hiring in the area. He mentioned that with a lower cost of wages and living. A pre-seed startup could go a long way with family money funding the moonshot.
I think it's sad that as you said even companies with large chunks of money aren't willing to spend in r&d as much as before. I guess a war is needed for that unfortunately.
If Meta open sources their models/tools and it gains wide adoption, ways will be found to run the models more efficiently or infrastructure/research built on top of Meta's work will ultimately end up saving them a lot of costs in future. Release the model that cost $10bn to make now, and save yourself billions when others build the tooling to run it at 1/10th the cost.
Meanwhile Meta’s competitors commoditise and glean profits from actually-SOTA LLM offerings.
In any case, their hypothesis is testable: which open source innovations from Llama1/2 informed Llama3?
I am not sure, but I agree that it is definitely testable.
If I had to guess/answer, I would argue that the open source contributions to Pytorch have a downstream contribution to the performance, and maybe the preparation and release of the models required an amount of polish and QA that would otherwise not have been there.
In more ways than one. Sandia National Laboratories (mentioned in the article) is a national research laboratory, and since it was managed by AT&T from its inception in 1948 it was organized like Bell Labs. It's no longer managed by AT&T and its culture today feels a lot less like Bell Labs, but in the early days the employees called it "Bell Labs West." Sandia is the only national lab that has an AT&T origin story.
I think, ironically, the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017" has gutted tech jobs and R&D in a profound way.
> The TCJA amended I.R.C. §174 such that, beginning in 2022, firms that invest in R&D are no longer able to currently deduct their R&D expenses. Rather, they must amortize their costs over five years, starting with the midpoint of the taxable year in which the expense is paid or incurred. For costs attributable to research conducted outside the U.S., such costs must be amortized over 15 years. This will be the first time since 1954 that companies will have to amortize their R&D costs, rather than immediately deduct those expenses.
The act actually took us back by many decades in terms of R&D incentives, and devastated US competitiveness vs China by disincentivizing R&D across the board.
They're unlikely to be praised around here, but I think history will potentially be kinder to them.