Bonuses for higher velocity based on guessed story points would be an even bigger reason for not taking it seriously - or rather to overestimate everything in order to gain the impression of higher velocity and the bonus associated.
If I quoted you $1,000 to unclog your kitchen sink trap, you'd call bullshit because you can probably find out how easy it is to do that. Likewise, if I quote you 13 points to add a generic error toast message because a POST went badly, you should call bullshit on that too.
Fred sucks. We can say his work is easy, and continually make him feel bad without firing him, or we can pretend it’s two weeks.
If we've built the same software before ....we wouldn't have to build anything we'd just use the previously built software.
Software isn't built like a kitchen but by exploring an infinite list of design choices and then choosing one way and implementing it ..hopefully without impacting existing architecture. And it seldom stays static - the name of the game is constant change and then add group dynamics to that.
A better example is to call a plumber and ask how much would it be to add a "rainbow spout to the horse-drawn wheelie-do" oh and there will be several other teams of plumbers there as well. I bet you get a few questions.
secondly, and I've done alot of this, its entirely possible to build useful estimates around greenfield projects like 'define a new language', even though there are lots of variables in play. one useful technique is to work backwards. 'if we dont have a working draft spec in 2 weeks then we can really start the parser, so we're gonna say that, and if we cant hit it, we know we're in trouble'
if your ability to assign semantics and use your experience to plan out the work stops at 'horse drawn weheelie-do', i wonder if this is the right profression for you.
if as a culture we just throw up our hands 'whelp, its all unknowable, we'll just do the best we can and thats you can ask for', then we cant really criticize our customers for being frustrated with us and not 'appreciating our brilliance and how hard this is'.
and the truth is, we can and have done better than that.
Story points hold very little value in estimation, the discussion that occurs however, is extremely useful.
[0] https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2007/10/26/evidence-based-sch...