I suspect that without Jobs, Apple is dead by 2002. Turned into an arm of, like, RIM. Then Google comes out with the Android phone and it's all over for everyone including Microsoft.
Blackberries were OK at the time, but my god RIM was so culturally conservative and Google at the time had no design sense that we'd probably be 10 years behind where we are now - and if we even had software keyboards they'd be terrible.
Which keep being forgotten, in these kind of discussions.
https://www.theregister.com/2004/11/03/review_hp_ipaq_6340/
I had one since 2000 as a daily driver and I loved the thing, but the app library was horrible.
The funny thing is, iPhone launched with no support for 3rd party apps. It took damned near a year for the first apps to arrive.