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Comment by andrewstuart | Hacker News Reader

Amara's law : We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

The AI revolution has only just started. The web took years to really find its feet.

Anyone who is calling AI a fizzer is calling the end of the race when the horses have just started out of the gate.

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Still a bubble that will pop though. If only in the short term before things consolidate and mature as with so many other hypes.

Hot take:

It will moderate, but not pop.

Infrastructure spending will decrease but a bulk of purchasers are incredibly well funded with revenue sources that are not dependent on GenAI.

I have no degree of certainty, but I have seen enough of these takes over the years to always try to imagine the most likely counterfactual.

That's still a pop. Internet companies are worth way more today than they were in 2002 when the internet bubble popped.

There’s many many genuine use cases.

It’s not all hype.

Not sure why this was downvoted. As an investor, I'm seeing a wave of awesome business applications that were fantasies a few years ago, and now straightforward to build. In particular, apps that rethink entire job functions around the existence of AI-enhanced algorithms.

Example: people spend ungodly amounts of time creating marketing materials, and this is all getting automated 10:1 or more.

"Example: people spend ungodly amounts of time creating marketing materials, and this is all getting automated 10:1 or more."

So expect 10x more ad spam? How wonderful!

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