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Comment by greenyies | Hacker News Reader

Way to long and no bubble in sight

Ai is already changing plenty of industries...

My wife just bought AI skin cream. Definitely no signs of a bubble round here.

That’s just the sideshow. The bubble has yet to start: very few AI companies are publicly tradable through direct stock purchases.

Yea, we're still in the money raising phase. This should get interesting when investors start looking for an exit. Maybe by then everyone will have forgotten how the SPAC craze turned out.

Scammers and stupid marketing doesn't mean ai is a bubble

Like Oral-B's $300 AI toothbush![1]

No bubble! No bubble!

1. https://oralb.com/en-us/products/compare/electric-toothbrush...

The "AI" toothbrush, stupid as it is, actually pre-dates the current hype by years. Here's a review from 2019: https://www.forbes.com/sites/leebelltech/2019/06/30/oral-b-g...

A better example would be the "AI mice" that Logitech is pushing now.

Of course there are tons of useless PR parasites. Shareholders will demand to see a "response" or a "strategy" or an "answer" or an "AI play". If all you make is toothbrushes, you just have to milk the users the old fashioned ways: hardware purchase, subscription, and data sharing.

That said, I know of ANOTHER toothbrush company that has an "AI play"... :(

Exactly, this is just stupid marketing and has nothing to do with real ai

I've got a friend with one. They are actually good toothbrushes if not very AI.

What are some examples?

If in 10 years all we have are better chat bots and image generators, I’d say it was a bubble, and I don’t see anything that says that’s definitely not the path (though I’m not in the weeds of AI, so maybe it’s just not obvious, yet).

By 2025 the majority of applications will use AI in some way (mostly to allow for sloppy user input), in 5 years there will be no non-AI applications.

For example, in healthcare (because... day job), you will be interacting with an AI as the first step for your visits/appointments, AI will work with you to fill out your forms/history, your chart will be created by AI, your x-ray and lab results will be read by AI first, and your discharge instructions will be created on the fly with AI... etc. etc. etc. This tech is deploying today. Not in a year, today. The only thing that's holding it up is cost and staff training.

2025 is 6 months away. There is absolutely no way a majority of applications will use it.

That sounds like an absolute nightmare

Think about what you just said.

You gave examples of how chat bots are going to be more widely used. Nothing more. So far I don’t see any examples that aren’t overpriced efforts in “shoehorning a chat bot” into something.

Like why will a hospital pay for a bunch of chat bot integrations when it’s likely my ChatGPT phone app will be able to view the form via camera and AirDrop or email the form? Meaning, I still see no examples of why OpenAI isn’t the Bitcoin of the crypto bubble (one use case, with one winner).

You say the only things holding it up are:

- Cost

- Training

Which can be said of any business that’s ever existed. So why is AI different?

So instead of just pointing me to non-existent Quicklisp packages, I can have a bot read the junk in my patient chart and hallucinate answers to pressing health care questions? I can't tell if this is a proposal or a threat.

>If in 10 years all we have are better chat bots and image generators, I’d say it was a bubble

Sure, if in 10 years that's all we have, you win, it was a bubble.

I think the probability of that is a rounding error.

Alpha Fold 2 for example.

Whisper.

Image gen changes a whole industry right now.

The robot demos the last year.

As with previous AI hype waves, real transformational change happening does not contradict there also being excessive hype and a bubble which eventually bursts.

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