Hurricane Beryl Isn't a Freak Storm–It's the Nightmare Meteorologists Predicted | Hacker News Reader

Hurricane Beryl Isn't a Freak Storm–It's the Nightmare Meteorologists Predicted

wired.com

60 pointsBrajeshwar32 comments

One thing they don't highlight in the article is that the storm's wind speed is well above the rate it takes to qualify it as Category 5; And that Category 5 is the _top_ of the scale.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#C...

Though Category 6 isn't a part of that scale, there are unofficial estimates of the speed of the windows to qualify as a storm more powerful than a category 5.

> have suggested pegging Category 6 to storms with winds greater than 174 or 180 mph (78 or 80 m/s; 151 or 156 kn; 280 or 290 km/h).

And at last measurement, this storm had winds of ~165 mph.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#P...

There is nothing special about such scales. Considering the scale was only invented in 1971, it's no wonder that it must be revised. There would be more meaningful ways to communicate storm characteristics but the public will not necessarily understand it in the same way as a more qualitative scale.

Hurricanes are just trying to catch up to Ethernet cable standards </XKCD>

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category_6_cable

Arstechnica's article on this has a good chart showing what a huge outlier Beryl is compared to the historical record: https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/07/yes-you-should-be-a-...

That chart is a good start. It could be improved by global average yearly temperature as a proxy for atmospheric energy, and a couple more charts for human and naturally occurring greenhouse emissions.

~170 years is hardly Planetary Scale.

I'm not sure what you mean by "Planetary Scale" here—where is that being discussed?

Are we discussing weather? That has planetary scale cycles.

Are you suggesting we can't make any claims about this hurricane?

Or that we can only assess weather in millennium level increments?

Trying to understand the point behind your comment.

So you're referring to things like El Niño and La Niña?

No. 500 year storms. 1000 year storms. etc. Though the sample time is short on these events we do possess recorded history of extreme weather events. From pre-industrial times. Which suggests the potential for off-planet causes for these phenomena. Which nearly all climate “scientists”completely disregard. Such a lack of curiosity disqualifies such an avenue of “science”.

It is the very start of the nightmare that meteorologists predicted, the big picture is a multiple months movie. Things should get rougher as the season advance, both in intensity/damages and in frequency/amount.

If you’re on iPhone you can make Wired’s site usable by doing Website settings > Use reader automatically

I had no idea this was a thing I could do, this will help for a lot of atrocious websites.

Thank you!

Although Beryl is not going to hit Florida, how will these increased hurricanes impact Miami's goal of becoming the financial capital of the US?

Florida will end up as a playground for those who can absorb the cost of structure insurance (wind and flood) premiums or self insure. Anyone reliant on financing that requires insurance will flee, as the PITI (principal interest taxes insurance) monthly payments will exceed what local wages can support.

https://www.marketplace.org/2024/05/28/are-we-in-the-midst-o...

https://www.nestapple.com/states-that-floridians-are-moving-...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-29/foreclosu... | https://archive.today/mRCPD

https://www.wired.com/story/banks-are-finally-realizing-what... | https://archive.today/Yhhwb

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40385902

There's a perverse incentive here - the US flood insurance program is heavily government subsidized and the government is already loosing money hand over fist rebuilding homes in flood zones.

Progress is being made in accurately pricing this risk and exposing consumers to this signal, but there are still stakeholders attempting to slow this progress (unfortunately).

https://www.eenews.net/articles/flood-insurance-rates-will-s...

https://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/work-with-nfip/risk-rat...

Well, and I think at the end of the day, the government is still insuring properties that have no right to be getting insurance.

I do wonder if we'll see people change the architecture and material of houses to deal with the increased risk? You have to think at some point beach houses are going to go from 'luxury' to a brutalist, elevated tornado shelter type thing on stilts.

I have done some building sciences work in the Yucatan Peninsula (Merida, specifically); I expect that sort of building to be more common in places with high wind/hurricane risk. You're going to get concrete units with the entire building rated for 200+ mph winds, window/balcony openings with Miami Dade code shutter ratings, and with robust flood defense (no parking or utilities the first 20 feet from the ground, everything elevated to higher floors to withstand surge and flooding). I shudder to think what's going to happen to a lot of luxury high rise construction currently taking place between Cancun and Isla Blanca, as it is not up to these standards (and currently directly in the path of this storm and future storm tracks).

US building material costs have gone up 30% since before the pandemic though, so you'd need to pencil out if you can even break even on building these buildings. I think that's the real challenge, so much housing stock in the US is coasting on embodied inexpensive material and labor costs that no longer exist, and it is painfully expensive to try to build affordable housing today (at least in my experience). Can we even afford to build in higher climate risk areas [1]? It might be cheaper to pay people to migrate, and hold the land as unbuildable (as FEMA does today in repeat loss areas).

For the very well off, they'll just eat the cost of any losses of non weather fortified structures to keep the aesthetics. Maybe that's a conspicuous consumption/Veblen good of the future.

TLDR The cost of climate change is too damn high [2].

[1] https://firststreet.org/

[2] https://www.wired.com/story/everythings-about-to-get-a-hell-...

I wonder if you can even build something that can withstand those storms. It's like talking about building tornado proof houses in the midwest, it just not something that can be done.

I don't think this should be flagged.

https://archive.ph/6Fiof

Why is this flagged?

Is it a peak or a trend? If it beat out the previous record holders from 2005, that means we had 18 years where it was less. Either way, could be a bad season this year.

I wonder what the probability model is for the rest of the season. Is one big hurricane early in the season really that ominous for the entire rest of the season, or are we just comparing it to 2005?

The evidence pointing towards this season being particularly destructive doesn’t stop at “one early hurricane;” meteorologists have been raising the alarm for months now over warm Atlantic temperatures and low wind shear. These are attributed to el nino transitioning into a la ninya and local warming due to climate change

Why is this flagged?

wasnt texas proudly taunting that it is doubling down on non woke climate change accelerating industries? good luck.

You've thrown this out like they're in conflict, when they're really two aspects of the same dynamic. Personally, honor culture makes people down double on the denial of how they can withstand whatever comes their way, rather than admitting some things are larger than what they can individually deal with. Politically, the destruction and impoverishment pushes people more rightward as they try to hold on to what they do have.

But it like trying to rodeo an avalanche,by insisting the house going downhill is safe and the warners are trying to steal your house.

its expressing a retardation, a inability to even conceive physical reality without it being controlled by man or handle the reality rolling towards ones society.

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