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You know you're in trouble when even GOLDMAN SACHS is like "maybe this thing is a bubble"

I read somewhere that their accuracy is on par with a coin flip, but that's also true for all analysis that is posted/voiced publicly.

50% accuracy out of the gate is incredibly good for investment analysis.

If you had <50% accuracy in expectation you could improve your analysis by inverting it, I suppose...

And, to improve your chances further, you'd just need to know when you'd have more to gain by inverting your choice versus not inverting.

How so?

Isn't that equivalent to saying on heads I buy, on tails I sell? What makes that incredibly good?

If I could predict with 50% accuracy which startups would unicorn and which would die I'd be extraordinarily wealthy.

For example, invest $1000 in two companies, and expect a 100x gain and a $1000 loss over the next 5 years.

(I say "out of the gate" because you can change your bets as situations and positions evolve, and I'm sure MS do.)