Inflation's Wild Ride
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
My month rent has gone up significantly as I’ve stayed in the same apartment for the past several years. In the past few years my rent has had a 1000 dollar increase now in 2024 compared to when I moved in to this apartment a few years ago. The rent in all the surrounding apartments have also increased horribly over the past few years.
Even if the rate of rent increase from now on is less I am still going to be having a tough time.
Also the fact that the food and other necessities have skyrocketed. Even if the future rate of price increase on these goods is 0, I’m still having a tough time.
So these articles always have this assumption that somehow because inflation rate has lowered people should be happy. But that’s not how reality works. The cost of everything is still too high!
https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/blog/2024/03/price-fix...
Working class Americans now have flat screen TVs and smartphones because of massive deflation in the prices of consumer technology. Technological advancements have also been deflationary in lots of less-obvious ways like energy efficient appliances, zero-commission stock trading or medical imaging machinery.
A million dollar super-computer of a couple decades ago now rivals the power of a smartphone. It's largely a regulatory and cultural failure that's prevented us from driving down the cost of housing through technology.
What's needed is for salary increases in lower and middle incomes to keep pace with inflation.
I don't know why it is so hard to understand. A price control acting as a lower bound on prices will result in the overprovisioning of that good. In the case of money, it means people hold onto more money than is optimal, which in turns creates a recycling problem. The government must pay the difference between the interest rate on the capital markets, which used to be negative and the government guaranteed rate of zero. This difference forces the government to take on more debt. Now that we are in an inflationary situation, the interest rate can be increased and the government is, paradoxically, getting rid of its debts since it no longer has to subsidize the difference.
If people accepted the reality of negative interest, then almost every country could follow a Swiss style hard money monetary policy.
Before you argue that negative interest is some kind of "financial repression", consider that the real interest rate could still be positive even if the nominal interest rate is negative or that negative interest would primarily exist intermittently during recessions to restabilize the economy without deficit spending.