Japan's mini kei-truck sales surge in US despite safety concerns | Hacker News Reader

Japan's mini kei-truck sales surge in US despite safety concerns

bloomberg.com

The current truck market in the USA is a good example of how the "free market" works first and foremost to maximize profit --- not to the benefit and often to the detriment of consumers.

The monstrosities currently being sold are completely divorced from the purpose a "truck" used to serve. These mini trucks are the response.

For half a century, a litany of federal policies has favored large SUVs and trucks, pushing automakers and American buyers toward larger models. Instead of counteracting car bloat through regulation, policymakers have subtly encouraged it. That has been a boon for car companies, but a disaster for everyone else.

It's not that simple. Regulations are at least partially, if not primarily to blame for car bloat. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24139147/suvs-trucks-popu...

good article. glad to see they called out the Chicken Tax

And this Kei Truck response is a good example of how a market (free or not), while seeking to find all profits, uncovers an unmet need in the market and adapts for the mutual benefit of the consumers And the producers.

The Kei trucks are a less than ideal, last ditch response to a market that had failed a lot of consumers.

Look for those profiting from the status quo to do everything possible outside of the market to stop it.

You find this everywhere there is a centralized "authority". Incumbants use every trick to keep their tribe in power at the expense of what that central power was nominally "supposed to do".

The purpose of the system is what it does. The purpose of seemingly all regulatory institutions is to gain and maintain power for the tribe in power.

I mean not really since they are imported used vehicles from Japan

These trucks are illegal to sell new in the states

Japanese producers aren’t designing these vehicles with American second hand JDM import buyers in mind

Kei-truck manufacturers make no profit off this US uptick and consumers are at best irritated and at worst paying import fees because their domestic producers refuse to meet their needs and force them to cough up more cash for a vacuously useful and environmentally harmful oversized utility vehicles

Markets can work, this is a clear example of it breaking down (for the US) and a sign the government should step in to steer the - arguably flailing - market

You're suggesting government step in and stop the market from adapting around existing regulation? But that's how we got where we are right now. If government weren't in the way we'd have even more happy buyers.

You point out US consumers might be annoyed at bad local options and are looking elsewhere then suggest that this is a failure of the market when in fact it is this market action that permits the consumer to find a better solution for their problems. All government can do if they "step in" is make this even harder.

You cannot Force a market.

You are making it sound like the Kei market makes more than just a very very tiny portion of total sold trucks in the US. Its not, it is very much a niche market.

To be clear, the small number is the amount of people who are willing to jump through hoops and legal loopholes to actually import one. The actual number of people who would chose one of these over a Ford at their local dealer is likely orders of magnitude higher.

To be clear you are completely materializing that without any data. The data we do have are import numbers. You say it’s a lot of hoops but looks like you can buy one of these sub 10k from an importer. No hoops and in a reasonable price point. Supply and import demand paints the picture.

And yet we're discussing the phenomenon online and arguing about it on our niche platform..

> And yet we're discussing the phenomenon online and arguing about it on our niche platform..

What is your point? I am simply stating that you are overstating the actual market share of this demand. I don't disagree, modern trucks are comically too large but Kei trucks are not a response to it.

I don't think I stated the size or proportions of the market.

The main reason they became so gigantic is regulation. First, since "heavy-duty" vehicles are subject to less regulation, crew cabs demand soared (much cheaper than a regular car with similar room). Then, during Obamas presidency, fuel consumption standards were based on wheelbase and tread width. This meant that larger trucks had to be less fuel efficient, which meant they were cheaper.

If all vehicles were subject to the same regulations the size increases would have been in line with normal cars. If there was a lot less regulation and people weren't demanding so many gimmicks, you could probably get a very basic work truck, about as big as a Hiluxe, for $5k.

Kei trucks are still nothing but a blip from a very niche market. No business outside of an owner operated business will be using these. The consumer market just finds them fun an interesting. They certainly have a nice price point but are largely for very local use as most of them cannot reach highway speeds, though I am not sure I would want to take one on a US highway.

"Ford F-Series expanded its lead in 2023, on sales of 750,789".

"Last year (2023), more than 7,500 Kei trucks were imported to the U.S. from Japan."

So the imported amount (not sold to consumer necessarily) is still less than 1% of the total market. Napkin math with chevy at 200k and capping it at 1mm for total.

These Kei trucks are a less than ideal, last ditch response to a market that has failed a lot of consumers.

The number being imported by highly motivated individuals is only a small fraction of the extent of this failure.

No it is not. They conservatively represent less than 1% of new trucks sold. "small indicator of the extent of this failure" that is just a projection of what you think it is. I don't disagree modern trucks are comically large and starting prices are too high, lets look towards poor federal regulations that helped get us to these large trucks before talking about market failure.

The Ford Maverick seems like it would really nicely fill the niche?

My college actually used a few Kei trucks for the maintenance people years ago. I assume they could get them new(ish?) because they weren't used on road. They always seemed perfect for the job, and I have seen them around in other roles like that, but I only recently saw one on-road. I get the appeal, but I'd take a Maverick over one every time.

I'd take a Maverick over one every time.

Yes, a Maverick is a much more versatile vehicle for the US market; however, try finding one.

Ford has a marketplace dilemma. They know they could sell lots of these but they really don't want to make them. They would much rather make/sell a big honkin' monstrosity that very few buyers actually need --- because $$$.

They likely have a capacity issue. The same plant that makes Broncos (huge sellers) also make the Mavericks which added a third shift in 2023. Some Ford plants already run three shifts, Kentucky Truck plant did for the longest of times. I think Ford has one entire factory dedicated to F150s. Ford has two weeks a year to add a new model to a factory, car manufacturing is very inelastic.

Worth noting that Broncos are basically just the SUV version of the Maverick; same chassis.

Pretty common for a lot of truck-SUV builds, like how the Toyota 4Runner is bascially just an enclosed Tacoma; essentially a Hilux-based SUV

They likely have a capacity issue.

Why build a Maverick when a Bronco sells for $15K more.

They have a capacity issue --- and little motivation to solve it.

Yes, I'm not really in the market for a vehicle, so I'm not aware of what's really available. But I'd think anyone can make something like a Maverick; in fact, I'd rather buy something like that from Toyota or Honda. You'd think that if Ford has proven the demand, others might get in and accept a little less margin - that's what economics would suggest after all.

The current truck market, including SUVs and the absence of keis, is strongly shaped by the Chicken Tax: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax

People obviously want light weight trucks, but govenment regulations prevent them from being sold in the US. This is a great example of how the market is non-free. Blaming the "free market" is completely backwards.

The primary reason that "light weight trucks" aren't available in the US market --- is because selling oversized monstrosities is way more profitable.

Kei trucks are a very nice complement to a bigger truck, but they do not and can not replace them and the latter very much have practical reasons to exist.

Consumers are not victims, they are driving the market.

The truck market is what it is because over time consumers have favoured a certain type of trucks when given the choice. If people picked the smaller truck at the dealership when shown the options trucks would look differently today.

Exsept its not that simple, due to poorly conceived emmisons law (one.exempting larger vehicles from the standard) and an unfortunate tariff (see chicken tax) its better for the manufacturer to make ever larger vehicles to use the "small truck" loophole. Its hard to signal a size preference when they are all behemoths due to engineers finding a way to exploit the regulations by making the all cheaper when they are huge.

It is that simple. There is no market pressure to be small, quite the opposite, so that's what happens. They keep getting bigger because, again, consumers tend to choose the bigger option.

Regulations do not push for ever bigger trucks, they may have thresholds so at most they might favour a minimum size but after that it's up to the market. My understanding is that the rules for light trucks date from the 70s, which I'm sure means that trucks could be much smaller and still use that "loophole".

Exsept do to CAFE emissions standards there is a selection presure removing small trucks before market pressure can influence anything.

So so one buys small trucks because there aren't any so people that just need a truck buy are large one as there are no new small truck in the market so sales numbers of large truck go up so more are made because large truck sales are up and viscous cycle continues untilled it gets so bad people who just want a small truck start importing used decades old kie trucks from Japan because regulations have distorted the local market. If it was functioning properly no one would go to all the effort as that is a signal of high unmet demand.

Your comment repeats what I wrote before but does not explain the key point, which that trucks get bigger and bigger, especially since cars are also getting bigger and bigger (at least here in Europe).

That does not happen because of regulations but because, again, that what consumers freely choose when given the choice.

I have a thirty-five-year-old truck and it's still perfectly fine for my hauling needs but out of curiosity I looked at what new trucks or minivans might be appropriate replacements when the time comes. A huge fraction of the trucks I looked at were comically gaudy and large, even the base models oozed luxury, and most were clearly designed around projecting a certain kind of image rather than prioritizing utility.

I was reading about kei trucks when I came across Telo[1], a startup working on a US-legal electric kei truck. Depending on ground clearance that might tick every box for me even though I don't live in a city. They've got a steep hill ahead of them; I hope they succeed.

[1] https://www.telotrucks.com/

For anyone interested in these trucks I came across this site, carfromjapan.com[0], that manage the logistics of acquire one. And some of the listed Kei trucks are crazy cheap compared to their full-size American competition.

When I was a teen Japanese cars were all the rage and I managed to acquire a SR20DET for my Nissan 240SX. A completely impractical car for a broke college student. I would love to have one of these trucks to wrench on but I'm citified now and finding parking is already expensive.

[0] https://carfromjapan.com/campaigns/referral-program?referral...

Yes, it might break someone's arm if you drive into them! Better get a Ford F450 and turn them into a fine red mist instead.

While new trucks are comically oversized, the Kei sized trucks being imported are indeed death machines if you were to get into an accident. I don't think the US should care unless they want to get rid of that import loop hole law.

About 50% of passenger vehicle occupants killed in 2022 were not buckled in[0]. All cars are death machines, but as long as their users are too stupid and ignorant to do ONE SIMPLE ACTION before every drive to save their OWN LIFE, I don't see why a vehicle that is perfect for Japan should be banned in the USA.

[0] https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/seat-belts

Where were we talking about seat belt safety?

US federal laws allows vehicles to skip safety/emission requirements if they are 25+ years old. Like I said, the US should not care unless we were to change that law. The car is still a death trap if you were to get into an accident with a US vehicle from the same time period.

I think this is fine, and it's no different from riding a motorcycle -- the primary risk is to the driver, who is free to assume their own risk. Someone else driving a Kei truck poses zero risk to me. If they understand the risk, then it's fine by me if they take the risk. They're also just much safer the slower they go. They make sense as fully-local or as city vehicles. 25-35 MPH are their sweet spot. Yes, they _can_ go on the highway, but probably shouldn't.

Which is kind of my point. I don't care unless the US wants to change the law but its in a weird spot where if a state legalizes it, what class does the vehicle fall in because it should not be allowed on roads that get to highway speeds as it might pose a risk to the flow of traffic. Just like how in CA there are signs to say bicycles are not allowed on certain highways/freeways.

Well you can get these Kei trucks up to ~65-70 MPH. The reason they shouldn't go on highways is that they're drastically less safe for the driver, and that their MPG tanks since they're screaming the engine at 5k RPM or more. ie, they don't necessarily delay traffic, they just sort of exist outside of the design constraints of the vehicle.

Not entirely true, you can get some Kei trucks up to 65-70 but not all.

I wasn't aware, thank you.

Depends on the model some of these really struggle over 40mph.

> the Kei sized trucks being imported are indeed death machines if you were to get into an accident

Would that because the other vehicles they would collide width are over-engineered, overweight and over-reinforced?

As they less safe than bicycles and motorbikes in that respect?

The weight and reinforcement of trees, poles, deer, etc. are difficult to change. Single-vehicle crashes cause more than half the crash deaths in the US[1].

I don't think the safety record of a motorcycle is a standard to aim for -- but even then a kei truck is at least twice the weight and likely has significantly less sophisticated brakes.

[1] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...

Where were we talking about motorcycles or bicycles?

"I don't think the US should care unless they want to get rid of that import loop hole law."

I am simply stating fact. US federal law allows you to import vehicles that are 25+ years old without passing any safety or emission law. The Japanese market is already different enough in safety compared to the US market. These cars are indeed death traps if you were to get in an accident with an equivalently old US car.

The point I'm trying to make is that far more vulnerable vehicles ply American roads, so the safety aspect is kind of questionable.

So you are comparing a bicycle which are not allowed on most interstates/highways with a vehicle. Seems to be a pretty bad comparison.

This vehicle is the ideal of what an average truck should be…

I wish a manufacturer would create an affordable truck in the same style, but with modern steel, airbags, and air conditioning.

I don’t need it to be entertaining or signal masculinity or cost $65,000 or have a V8 engine or be capable of hauling 20,000 pounds.

But when I need to get mulch or pick up furniture or help someone move, I’d like to have something functional that won’t kill me if someone driving a typical truck smashes into me while checking Twitter.

https://archive.ph/p8FSx

"Safety concerns". Yes most probably due to all the Chelsea tractors around them.

Every grandpa in the japanese country side needs a kei truck. It's very practical. I moved apartments using one. The bed is hip height and opens quickly. The safety concern is someone else hitting you. I just got back from the McDonalds drivethrough and there was a lady alone in an american truck blocking everyone. I don't understand why anyone needs a car like that, they seem very dangerous.

Looking at the picture, that kind of vehicle is exactly what people in Indonesia have in mind when they talk about "truck".

The first time I heard the likes of Ford F-150s, which are also called "trucks" in the US, I assumed that's because the driver's body is physically larger there.

Of course I also wondered why those big trucks are fancier (more posh). I assumed the farmers there are richer.

Hundreds of the minitrucks are shipped by individual order each year to the US

I imagine if they sold dozens before then it could be called a "surge", technically.

People want pickups that are efficient and do work.

The old 4 banger shit box 2 wheel drive Toyota that you rode till it turned to rust.

Give me something that seats two, has ac and a radio (no giant screen) can fit a tool box and a sheet of plywood. You could make it electric. Hell if it can tow a small mini camper that would be great, but not needed.

You just described the Toyota Hilux Champ

$13,000 brand new

If the Hilux is the terrorist’s choice this is the Myanmar Rebel’s (SE Asian market only)

———

Although my two cents as someone not blocked from Toyota’s best utility vehicles like those in the states are:

The Toyota Landcruiser 70 series is the greatest pickup truck of all time bar none

Essentially it’s the apocalypse version of the Hilux

Only really ever popular in the middle east and Australia

I see quite a few custom 6x6 double diesel tank variants in outback Australia

Unfortunately Toyota realises how good it was/is and remarketed it at a price of ~$120,000 new

can't buy the Hilux in the US.

you can buy the Tacoma, which is incredibly expensive by comparison. good truck, though -- Hilux robustness + N American Truck Luxury

TL;DR: US manufacturers seem to favor the luxury market due to margins, but that might change

To my understanding, there are two main demographics:

* truck as tool (you and I)

* truck as identity statement & luxury good

Sadly, long-running vehicles don't fit the short-term stock price boost margins on luxury features seem to offer. As a result, we've moved past heated seats to focus on:

* ever-growing size

* tailgating accessories

* touch screens and voice assistants

However, even the target market for this seems to have its limits. I've seen a forum thread where people are asking what the point of Alexa is[1] if it doesn't integrate with anything. If you look at the "Similar threads" section at the bottom, there are plenty more Alexa sync issues.

Maybe people will get fed up eventually?

[1]: https://www.f150lightningforum.com/forum/threads/is-alexa-us...

There are tax advantages as I understand it if the truck is over a certain weight. This skews preferences towards a larger truck, since small trucks don't weigh enough.

"margins..." and market buying behavior.

Trucks are indeed comically large, partly due to buyers, partly margins and partly US emission laws.

People are fed up, but the price floor for trucks are high due to US federal safety standards. These Kei trucks do not meet these standards, so manufacturers can sell them at a low price with decent margins.

Amen.

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