Astronauts take shelter in Starliner, other spacecraft after satellite breakup
space.com
space.com
https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1806140666222948679
https://www.spacecom.mil/Newsroom/News/Article-Display/Artic...
is the whole tweet.
If Putin were doing something stupid because he can, that would sound pretty in keeping to me.
It would not be silly to say it.
Why do you imply Roscosmos is an autonomous organisation not under direct control of the President? Who do you say is in charge of decisions to take military actions (fire weapons) into international regions (space) from Russia?
Or another angle -- what percentage of satellite EOL events is "breaking up into a debris field" (vs "burning up in the atmosphere")?
> Space debris (also known as space junk, space pollution, space waste, space trash, space garbage, or cosmic debris) are defunct human-made objects in space – principally in Earth orbit – which no longer serve a useful function. These include derelict spacecraft (nonfunctional spacecraft and abandoned launch vehicle stages), mission-related debris, and particularly-numerous in-Earth orbit, fragmentation debris from the breakup of derelict rocket bodies and spacecraft.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris
> There were 190 known satellite breakups between 1961 and 2006. By 2015, the total had grown to 250 on-orbit fragmentation events.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_debris_producing...
As the cost of mass to orbit lowers by orders of magnitude in, likely, the next decade, we can begin seeing spacecraft that are far more durable, redundant and agile. They will have ample propellant to move out of the way and they will have life support systems and failure modes designed to withstand and allow for the repair of small impacts.
Orbital Debris Quarterly News: https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/pdfs/ODQNv...
Nasa Orbital Debris Program: https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/#
Problem #2 - at those velocities, even puny bits of debris can punch through serious thicknesses of armor. (The "high velocity" shells that modern tanks use to kill each other are slow-pitch softballs by comparison.) And the "friendly fire shotgun blast" of debris created when a small piece of orbital junk goes through the shield can be far deadlier than that bit of junk would have been all by itself.
You’re not letting it pass through with an aerogel-backed whipple shield.
I wonder if you angled the whipple members you could preferentially deflect it at a high angle. That way it can carry most of its momentum away from the shield and the shielded station.
It’s also why being shot in a bullet proof vest with anything man portable doesn’t knock a person backwards (in real life), but gives them a heck of a bruise.
Without the vest, the bullet would go all the way through them, or create a huge wound cavity. [https://whitemountainforensic.com/wound-ballistics-motion-ef...]. Which is what causes the desired fatal effect.
Even when shot with something bigger (such as a tank round), there is no time for the momentum to transfer to their body without destroying it - for the same reason it is impossible to ‘throw’ an egg 20 yards by hitting it with a hammer.
These orbital debris are much much much faster than any known traditional bullets (17 km/s is 55,000 fps or 17x faster than the fastest common cartridge), so the effect is even more pronounced.
Interestingly, there was work by Newton that models these types of penetrations pretty well. They only start to apply to high speed bullet impacts around 3k+ FPS. The type of impact damage becomes noticably different then, with say 5.56/223 Remington on mild steel having an impact crater that looks remarkably like a asteroid impact crater at close range, but a normal ‘flat’ crater/dent at long range once the velocity has dropped significantly.
Once you past the speed of sound in the materials involved, it’s quite predictable based on the density of the material and the length of the projectile.
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_depth]
It’s why modern tank penetrators are made of long, thin rods of high density material (such as depleted uranium or tungsten), and move very fast. They’ll penetrate essentially anything, with only depth varying based on density, because no material is able to transfer the force within itself effectively to ‘reject’ the penetration in time.
Spacing armor also helps, as it gives room for projectile fragments to break apart and lose energy over more area instead of efficiently transferring momentum directly into the point loaded part of the armor, which can dramatically reduce the impact depth in practice.
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaced_armour]
Angling the armor on the timescales involved in these impacts isn’t going to meaningfully deflect any penetrators though. It does, however, improve the effective depth of the armor. The forces involved in trying to redirect the later parts of the projectile based on the forces subjected to the first parts of the projectile don’t really work once you pass the speed of sound in the material.
[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sloped_armour]
Counter intuitive based on our normal life experience, but true.
So having many widely spaced layers of hard (to fragment the penetrator) then soft (to ‘catch’ fragments without transferring shock very well into later layers, hence spreading out the force over a wider area and often time) material in as ‘fluffy’ or an armor as possible is the most weight efficient way to stop very high speed projectiles - which is why it is used in space, because weight efficiency is really important.
Notably, heavier/denser versions of this (due to space constraints and the need to stop slower moving and heavier projectiles than in space) are widely used in newer generation main battle tanks in the form of chobham style composite armor. [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chobham_armour]
In those cases, sometimes adding explosives on top can help, as the penetration detonates it, and the resulting shockwave helps disrupt the projectile. [https://youtu.be/zK77-8kJ69c?si=PxMue9goABlfuiXY]
There are some neat videos of simulated tank armor penetrations on Youtube (look for “apfsds penetration test” for one example) that shows what is going on in pretty good fidelity.
So, to summarize - the aggregate force is not a real issue, it’s the damage done by the nature of the very high speed penetration. Think more ‘gamma radiation’, less ‘brick’.
Average adult males mass between 60-80kg, so such an impact - if fully absorbed - would contribute the momentum equivalent to a light shove to an adult human. Approx. 1/3 of a meter per second, or in American, about a foot per second of velocity. Barely enough to make someone shuffle their feet to stay upright.
Energy wise, however, it is the equivalent of approximately 34 grams of TNT [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TNT_equivalent], or 2x 20mm Anzio Anti Tank rounds [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anzio_20mm_rifle], or 8x 50BMG rounds [https://youtu.be/fUOh7a0cdUw?si=xX7Qzdl5ZfUUIVOs] - at the muzzle.
Those cartridges are roughly the size of a medium carrot. Absurdly large by sport shooting standards.
YouTube 50BMG video is a bit gruesome btw (ballistic dummy), but no actual blood.
The 50BMG is the most powerful ‘one man portable’ weapon you’re going to find, as they typically weigh over 20 lbs, and firing it is a rather intense experience. Especially since very aggressive muzzle brakes are necessary if the gun isn’t anchored to something.
Armor to protect against it is so heavy, it is pretty much impossible to wear in field operations. Think ‘bomb suit’. It will penetrate armor on many modern armored personnel carriers. 20mm is far more powerful, even without explosive shells.
And that is the size and velocity of the ‘small’ orbital debris.
High-power thermal laser ablates a key portion of the space-junk to slightly change its trajectory and preferably help deorbit it. All you need is energy since the reaction-mass comes from the space-junk itself.
Maybe you could combine the ideas and instead of ablating to deorbit, you modify the space-junk orbits to collide with a large aerogel satellite. You could potentially even boost it in the process.
Why? If the Bit O'Junk is within ~90% of its apogee, and it hits the aerogel cube at more than ~90 degrees, the impact will yield a fatal drop in Mr. O'Junk's perigee. Ion thrusters on the cube-laying satellites, high-precision orbital tracking, and a few racks of computers on the ground (to calculate orbits and impacts) should be enough. Low-powered lasers would probably be useful in the precision-tracking systems.
Blasting space-junk with high-powered lasers is cool...but those immediately get into issues with dual-use, space weapons treaties, and arms race scenarios.
Can aerogel be manufactured by the satellite itself? That would be pretty cool. It also seems nearly as effective as a weapon though, a spy satellite with a camera or solar panels caked with aerogel is as good as destroyed.
It's not critical that the killsats produce actual aerogel. A little cloud of snow, from a water tank and squirt nozzle, could also work. What matters is that it's cheap, reliable, low-mass, soft-ish, and collides head on-ish with Bit O'Junk - cutting the latter's orbital velocity by a few hundred meters per second. Done near apogee, that'd drop Mr. O'Junk's perigee enough for atmospheric drag to finish him off in very short order.
Whipple shield [1]. You’d want it as close to the station to save mass because that’s how spheres work.
[1] https://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/W/Whipple_shield....
And maybe not directly on the station itself, but perhaps as a cloud of drone-ship defensive satellites to provide a defensive array around the space station -- almost like a fleet of smaller boats providing a perimeter around a larger aircraft carrier?
If any kinetic energy can be divided and distributed amongst multiple projectiles (rather than a single point), then doesn't that lessen its severity?
I believe some of the more research oriented MRIs can hit 10T+.
https://www.scienceabc.com/nature/universe/is-it-hot-or-cold...
Also, not all satellite debris is metallic. Any ceramic / glass / plastic would zip right through.
or, for bonus points during an extra busy war, symmetrical cannons firing synchronized volleys.
Deflection by vaporising a very small part of the object can work, if you can spot it coming and hit it in time.
Assuming you can somehow detect a 1cm piece 1km away, you have approximately 10ms to accurately apply enough power to deflect it.
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19990116769/downloads/19...
https://www.space.com/nasa-confirms-debris-spacex-crew-drago...
Which sent me on a path to find out if carbon fiber is magnetic, and it appears to depend on the weave, the angle relative to the field, the strength of the field (naturally), and whether the magnetic field is static or alternating, and at what frequency.
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JAP...112k3921G/abstra...
'The missunderstood Kessler Syndrome' https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40716235
the logistics [crew mass, crew capabilities] have been factored into S.O.P. of the mission.
Funny they singled out Russia. From Wikipedia:
"...a few countries (China, India, Russia, and the United States) have successfully shot down their own satellites to demonstrate their ASAT capabilities in a show of force."
Before these times the US did it from an F-15.[3]
[1]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chinese_anti-satellite_...
[2]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Burnt_Frost#:~:tex....
[3]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Solwind&diffonl...
Anyone understand specifically what this is referring to? I read it several times and I don't see a hint. Normally this phrase would be followed by an explanation like
>this illustrates what Alice has been emphasizing -- that Bob has excellent OpSec
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/06/nasa-indefinitely-dela...
This article and headline just reek of the author grasping at straws to try and shoehorn Starliner into this story. The headline could’ve easily said “shelter in Soyuz” and nothing would’ve changed about the actual story at hand.
It is noteworthy because the safety/reliability of the Starliner was called into question. The fact that the two Starliner astronauts are still on the ISS means that NASA does not entirely trust the spacecraft. The fact that they sent them to shelter in it is noteworthy because it means that they trust it enough to be used in an emergency. If they would have asked Butch and Suni to shelter instead in the dragon or the soyuz that would have been a serious egg on the face of Boeing.
> nor do the issues affect Starliner’s usage as a shelter
Okay. I think i understand what you might be thinking. Please correct me if I am wrong. It sounds like you think the shelter functions because it is thick and that shields the astronauts. If you have that mental model that would explain why you think that the issues with Starliner does not affect its usage as a shelter. After all the problems with the trusters does not change the spacecraft’s wall thickness.
But this is not the correct mental model. The spacecraft is not sheltering them with its thickness. If they get unlucky orbital debris will cut through Starliner like a hot knife through butter. The real reason they shelter in the spacecraft is that they can use it to land if the station gets hit and they have to abandon it. So the correct mental model is that of a rescue boat, not a debris shield.
And if you are thinking that way it is easy to see how the trusters being less than perfectly reliable hampers the usage of the spacecraft as a shelter (as a rescue boat). It just happens to be that the relative danger posed by the truster problems is smaller (in NASA’s estimate) than the relative danger posed by trying to ride the other spacecrafts down without a seat for the extra astronauts.
That is cool. How will they deorbit if the thrusters shut down on them? Will they break Fred Flintstones style?
So the author went for an awkward attempt at saying "Look how great Starliner is, astronauts are even sheltering in it from all that Russian debris and will fly it back if needed".
> this illustrates what Alice has been emphasizing -- that Bob has excellent OpSec
The answer is below a bit:
> "Starliner [...] is authorized to leave the ISS in case of emergency"
I guess it would be something like:
"As we all know, Bob has had a few slip-ups recently: he leaked his admin credentials in a public github repo, and then he also asked for a salary increase, but we'd like to emphasize that in an emergency Bob is fully authorized to respond to incidents and operate the system"
I'm sure that we'd still risk unmanned launches to higher altitudes during this time, but manned launches would very likely be restricted, at least by risk-adverse NASA.
"At around 400 kilometers and into the 500-km realm — home to ISS and the SpaceX Starlink satellites among others — atmospheric drag plays a major role. Dead satellites and debris usually slow and burn up in the atmosphere in just a few years. This natural cleansing process accelerates when the sun becomes more active and solar coronal mass ejections strike Earth and cause the atmosphere to swell."
https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/understanding-the...
Still, if the events occur not once in a decade but multiple times a year that could mean trouble for space travel:
"Linares sees a potential future where 'humans probably don’t have any incentive to launch satellites, because we’re losing 50% of them' to collisions with debris, he says."
11:58 a.m. -> Bottle is one quarter full.
11:59 a.m. -> Bottle half-full !
12:00 noon -> Bottle is full !
https://www.albartlett.org/articles/art_forgotten_fundamenta....
(That is quite beside the point that Kessler syndrome at that altitude is definitely not the type of "exponential growth in a finite environment" that the linked article describes, because orbital decay means that the smaller the particles get, the faster they will deorbit themselves)
First of all, exponential growth basically doesn't ever actually occur in nature: everything has a carrying capacity. Sometimes the carrying capacity is so high it doesn't matter, but clearly in the case of the bottle it does. The growth will slow down significantly as the bacteria approaches the capacity of the bottle. The bottle could easily be half full as early as 11:30 as the available food for the bacteria starts becoming scarce enough to limit its growth.
Secondly, 2^60 bacteria would weigh about 1,100 kg. Assuming the bottle is 1L (larger than a standard wine bottle), you'd need over 1000 bottles to house that much bacteria. So no, if it doubles every minute, then the bottle has been full for the last 10 minutes.
I'm being generous and assuming some process is keeping the flask continuously well-mixed, otherwise you don't even have exponential growth in the ideal case (it's limited by the expanding surface area of the colony).
You might think I'm being pedantic, but the entire exercise is to put some "real world" context to blow the minds of people and illustrate how exponential growth "really" works. But that's not how exponential growth really works in the real world, at all. Instead it's just taking a model of spherical cows to an absurd conclusion that only serves to further confuse people's understanding of the world. It's like those awful anti-intuition-pumps (intuition sinks?) about stretching all your DNA from end-to-end.