His original prediction about 2029 (or say 2039 or whatever near term) doesn't seem impossible anymore. I'd rate the prediction as impressive - given that it was made way before the current AI boom.
I think there are many ways to get at a concrete prediction of 2029, or thereabouts, by noticing a halving of cost for the same compute and/or storage every 1.5 to 3 years. This is a sort of generalized Moore's law or, maybe, just Wright's law [2]. Do this calculation to get 2.3Pb of storage, the estimated storage size of the human brain, for under $5k and you get within the range of 2030, give or take a decade.
$5k is my arbitrary cutoff price point as this puts it in the "home computer" category and is, in my opinion, the price point that set off the home computer revolution.
[0] https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/10/william-gibson-per...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_in_the_Shell_(manga)
For what it's worth Kurzweil thinks exponential thingies fix climate change. Solar and that.
>Eventually nanotechnology will enable these trends to culminate in directly expanding our brains with layers of virtual neurons in the cloud. In this way we will merge with AI and augment ourselves with millions of times the computational power that our biology gave us. This will expand our intelligence and consciousness so profoundly that it’s difficult to comprehend. This event is what I mean by the Singularity.
Seems kind of wacky to me. I've always believed in Moore's law type stuff but not the nanobots which have been long hypothesised but pretty non existent.