In the end, what will happen is Apple will cave (not by choice), with this press release being a warning shot. Many money will be spent on lawyers on both sides, however Apple will have gotten a few extra months before being required to change their design to be in compliance.
For Apple, every day of stalling is more revenue and profits under their 'old' but 'dying' (in the EU) model, but at some point in the next 12-24 months expect to see a number of changes to satisfy the commission. It's extremely unlikely Apple will escape by having to do nothing, that's clearly not the intention of the commission and they usually get their own way. Expect to see the CTF gone and a much friendly way of installing app stores - I even expect the text/interfaces the user sees to be designed/approved by the commission.
Although I will be unable to edit this comment I will check back on 24th June 2025 to see whether this was right.