> How much of him being a hero is a coincidence?None. He knew the right thing to do and did it despite extreme pressure.
> Did he refuse to sign the previous launches?
I don't know about him personally, but Thiokol, at the behest of McDonald and other engineers, had sent a formal letter to NASA the previous summer warning about the O-ring issue and stating explicitly that an O-ring failure could lead to loss of vehicle and loss of life.
> Did NASA have reasons to believe that the launch could be successful?
Not valid ones, no. The launch took place because managers, at both NASA and Thiokol, ignored valid engineering recommendations. But more than that, NASA had already been ignoring, since the previous summer, valid engineering recommendations to ground the Shuttle until the O-ring issue was understood and fixed.