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Comment by netsec_burn | Hacker News Reader

https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-secur... (May 28th)

> OpenAI has recently begun training its next frontier model and we anticipate the resulting systems to bring us to the next level of capabilities on our path to AGI.

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No doubt openai have been training big models for the last year. If “gpt5” is only just starting it means recent training runs have had disappointing results and have been passed off as “Gpt4o” or whatever.

The value of all the AI companies is predicated on high chance of AGI, and gpt5 failing to be revolutionary may pop the whole bubble (+10 trillion of market cap)

Sam said on Lex's podcast that people should temper their expectations for GPT-5, not in that it will necessarily suck, but that they want to ramp up ability slowly over time rather than discrete large steps.

Sounds like an excuse tbh. Esp when other companies are pushing ahead beyond OAI and open source is close to rivaling them

Yeah. Sam wants to productize $$$ what they have now rather than sink time and money training future models with uncertain outcomes. I suspect that difference in focus is what Ilya Sutskever means by wanting to “advance capabilities as fast as possible” in the in Safe Superintelligence Inc. announcement.

> If “gpt5” is only just starting it means recent training runs have had disappointing results and have been passed off as “Gpt4o” or whatever.

Sora probably took a lot of cluster time don't you think?

Based on other things they said in the last couple of months, it looks like GPT-4.5 is coming this summer, and then GPT-5 in the Fall.

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