VC predicts the industry is heading for a massive and enduring contraction | Hacker News Reader

VC predicts the industry is heading for a massive and enduring contraction

businessinsider.com

14 pointsbelter11 comments

It still surprises me every day that industry insiders discuss our current-era tech downturn and attribute it to a poor investment environment due to increased interest rates, yet nobody discusses the devastating impact of Section-174.

The author has an incentive for people to believe his prediction.

Maybe? But this also seems to be in line with a lot of desperation in the industry to have greater control over macro-economic factors.

Serious question that sounds like a troll: Given that VC returns are historically extraordinarily poor, should one generally invert the consensus of the VC class when looking for guidance?

Is that a given? I think that VC has slightly outperformed (or, at a minimum, are not "historically extraordinarily poor" versus) the broader market.

https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/insight/building-winning...

Can one invert the consensus of VC? It’s not binary/polar right? I don’t think investing in all VC’s throwaways would be a good investment strategy.

The bit about investing in iterative startups who just bolt a few new features on an existing idea, or aggregate other existing stuff together without really innovating is interesting...

Feels like that was one of the defining characteristics of the VC-backed B2B SaaS era (that is still ongoing)..

One can only hope that this will scare off the short term mindset and bring in leaders with long term objectives.

We don’t need money doubling machines we need solutions to real world problems.

Why would hardships lead to investors chasing social benefit instead of returns?

FOMO vs investing in actually viable/valuable products

It won’t. The idea is that if the investors are scared off then it will create an environment where entrepreneurs are not driven by their investors objectives and need a solid business plan to secure their initial funding.

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