The South China Sea Dog That Hasn't Barked Yet | Hacker News Reader

The South China Sea Dog That Hasn't Barked Yet

warontherocks.com

25 pointsjseliger6 comments

I didn't know any of this. Thanks for posting.

But China has been quite vociferous in their denial of Vietnamese activity. The maritime militia routinely swarms Vietnamese fishing ships. The Coast Guard routinely patrols Vietnamese oil rigs.

I'm disappointed in WarOnTheRocks for this opinion piece. He doesn't even explore what is the situation. He merely informs you what to believe, which just so conveniently tracks with his assertion.

It is curious that the Chinese haven't chosen Vietnamese atoll-building as their hill to die on, but it's just curious. Vietnam has negotiated with what I'll call newChina to settle boundaries. So calling it the dog that hasn't barked ignores Vietnam's own SCS history and chooses to overlay Filipino history onto Vietnam.

Finally, and this is the same problem casual observers fall into with Putin/Ukraine- it projects the author's rationality onto another rational actor and demands why haven't you acted in accordance with my beliefs? Reasonable minds do differ, it's not illegal.

It's quite simple, Vietnam is a client state of China.

It's one of at least four motivations, which the article outlines

> It's quite simple

Error: you are hereby disqualified from further discussion of geopolitics

That is very reductive and extremely incorrect.

While factions of the VCP have very close relations with the CCP, the VPA is de facto independent of the VCP and it's leadership is extremely anti-China due to the wars and conflicts from 1979-1996.

Most of the VPA's and VPN's leadership and mid-levels fought Chinese and China aligned forces on the border, in Cambodia, and Laos during that time period, and Vietnamese and Chinese naval patrols have had multiple standoffs since 2011, and allies like India and the US have shored up Vietnam's naval defenses (eg. The 2011 standoff between Vietnam and China started when an Indian destroyer faced off with a Chinese destroyer over Vietnamese oil blocks sold to India [0], India has given warships and training to VN [1], Lien Chieu Port which is barely 100 miles from Hainan and the Parcel Islands will now be built and operated by BJP-aligned Adani Group [2], the Indian Navy has exclusive use of neighboring Nha Trang Port [3], Indian SoEs are actively drilling in Vietnam's claim in the SCS/EVS/WPS [4], and the US and India both have right to port in Vietnam).

Also, a war with China would be extremely destructive to VN because much of China's naval and ballistics forces are located on Hainan - which is barely 150 miles off the coast of much of Vietnam.

A major difference is Vietnam's armed forces worked on building readiness unlike Phillipines, which was largely aimed at the internal security situation (Mindanao, the communist insurgency, etc), and the Phillipines Navy has been steadily decommissioning much of their ancient fleet recently and lack very basic capabilities such as submarines.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/article/oukwd-uk-india-china-navies-...

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/first-ind...

[2] - https://theinvestor.vn/indias-adani-group-proceeds-with-10-b...

[3] - https://idsa.in/system/files/monograph26.pdf

[4] - https://amti.csis.org/almost-everyone-is-drilling-inside-the...

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