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Comment by mgraczyk | Hacker News Reader

One huge oversight in this analysis is the assumption that LLMs will not get better. Imagine there is a 10% chance that LLM capabilities increase so significantly in the next 5 years that a significant portion (say 1%) of the economy will be automated by them. That's enough to make Nvidia a multi trillion dollar company.

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>That's enough to make Nvidia a multi trillion dollar company.

There are tons of chip companies breathing down it's neck. AMD dropped the ball but Huawei Ascend chips are already making a dent and NVIDIA had to drop prices in China. Rest of the industry will start eating into NVIDIA as the market cap grows.

That's a pretty big assumption. We can also assume they do not get much better and extrapolate from that, and I think that it's responsible to analyze both cases and try to ascertain which is more likely.

56% of the American economy is also based on intellectual property so it's also a big claim that the existing status quo will have nothing to say about large tech firms trying to displace that, if it is even good enough to do that.

It's not an assumption, it's an expected value computation. You have to choose a distribution of expected outcomes in terms of future capabilities. Nearly all outcomes that are plausible to me come out with Nvidia worth at least 50% of what's it's worth today.

Raw improvements to computation aren't a guarantee that LLMs improve.

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