Biden’s only realistic shot is to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Biden is polling 4-8 points behind where he was in June in those states in 2020, and where Clinton was in 2016.
Further, Trump consistently did better than the polls in almost every state in both 2016 and 2020.
To have him actually be up in the polls—something he never did nationally in the aggregate in 2016 or 2020—is signaling landslide.
>and where Clinton was in 2016.
I highly recommend this excellent Politico article on 10 key moments of the 2016 election campaign <http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/2016-presiden...>. One is how Trump campaigned like crazy while Clinton took weeks off just loafing in Chappaqua.
Eight years later Trump is still campaigning like crazy while Biden is hiding in his basement. I was amazed to learn recently that Biden as president has never done an interview with a major newspaper <https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-time-for-the-white-house-to...>; only podcasts like Conan O'Brien's, where he knows he'll only get softball questions.
That’s certainly possible, but another explanation is that the polls are trying to correct for this and have over corrected.
I think the polls will still possibly be off, but I wouldn’t bet money that they will overestimate Trump’s support this time. I think this time Trump’s growing support among Hispanic, black, and young voters will mess up the demographic adjustment again (but in a different way than in 2016 and 2020).
It's possible they still have major problems, but they've had multiple elections to learn from their mistakes at this point.
I think various scenarios are possible. But I think the outcome that’s somewhat more likely than other possible outcomes is that pollsters underestimate the degree to which Trump-leaning minorities and young people will turn out, and will underestimate Trump’s support again by a few points.