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Comment by mekoka | Hacker News Reader

> A 2022 Science investigation found evidence of a broader pattern of fabrication and data manipulation in Newmaster’s speeches, teaching, biographical statements, and scholarly writings over 2 decades. Evidence also suggested Newmaster embellished or simply invented findings or accomplishments, as well as claimed credit for work by others.

What I find puzzling about this kind of stories is that the pattern of behavior is usually obvious to all who know the person. Yet, it'll take years before they're found out. We all know people like Newmaster. They may not be scientists, but we recognize the more than usual tendency to exaggerate their accomplishments, the padding of the truth, the selective amnesia about giving credits where it's due. Even if you're just getting to know them, hang around just for a bit and you'll see it, even about meaningless stuff. It's what they do. And if you see it even just once with someone, it should be enough to raise your bs alarms about anything they say.

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My pet theory: Nobody wants to go up against a very charismatic phony in what will almost certainly turn into a battle of wits instead of a battle of facts.

Our entire society deifies charismatic phonies. They are the ones that get elevated to the highest positions in politics and the C-level business suite. They're always the heroic Main Character. They build up cult followings. They often look so good, speak so smoothly and have those irresistible Ivy League mannerisms. You're supposed to like them and help elevate them even higher.

Do you want to expose this person? The Main Character? You better be right, and you better be ready to have the full force of his charm, persuasion, and cult following at your throat forever.

> Nobody wants to go up against a very charismatic phony in what will almost certainly turn into a battle of wits instead of a battle of facts

I’ve met some incredibly unlikeable fraudsters. The bottom line is pursuing them would mean giving up months of my life in a tedious process. In many cases, the fraud seems stupid enough that it’s not okay, but just not worth sacrificing life time over.

This. It takes tons of energy especially if your surrounded with admirers (I suppose these types tend to gather undiscerning yes men).

I have fled a renowned institute for this reason. You are probably going to sacrifice your career over it either way, because if you're not hopping on their gravy train...

This is a perfect example of “I’m sure it will work itself out naturally.” It’s going to continue happening and it really just makes me more confident in the process around reviews and science in general. It shouldn’t fall on individuals to weed this out but it should absolutely fall on the process to.

Far from being weeded out by the process the process encourages this type of behavior and rewards it.

The review process is completely broken because it gives the reviewers no actual ability to change anything so 99% of the time it's just a rubber stamp.

Interesting take. I’m genuinely curious, do you have examples of that or where the review process clearly fails?

What’s the solution? I actually don’t have a great grasp of how it all works right now. Is there a field-specific board that determines how reviews are done? Is there a feedback loop?

>just not worth sacrificing life time over.

Yep, ready to alienate 30-50% of your friends, even though you were 'right'.

Do this enough times and you only have a few percentage left. "These are your true friends". There is no correlation. I watched someone rage over chapstick usage, they were right, but it looked like a silly debate.

I like the Stoics and those of virtue that sacrifice themselves for everyone else. Its genuinely appreciated if I can take a 30,000 ft high view. Best of luck doing it when humans live on the ground.

> ready to alienate 30-50% of your friends, even though you were 'right'

If your friend is a fraud, that's a separate problem.

I'm not concerned with alienating fraudsters, though the people on their gravy train aren't as easily dismissed. The cost is in collecting the evidence, putting it in the right places, following up, and then continuing to be helpful as someone in a position of authority connects the dots and prepares their response.

The problem isn't friends who are fraudsters. The problem is that a lot of people are automatically and blindly loyal to anything that presents itself as "science", because they perceive it as being ideologically on their side. Such people aren't interested in details. If you attack fraud all they hear is that you're attacking good and noble scientists who are only trying to save the world from {cancer,misinformation,CO2,COVID,whatever} and what sort of monster would do that? Are you a right winger ... friend?

Yep. And, sadly, you can replace "science" with "Roman Catholic Church", or any number of socially-similar human social institutions, and the story is the same. There's a powerful hierarchy invested in the status quo, and a large mob of "little people" at the bottom - who can turn nasty fast if their simplistic worldview seems threatened.

I think it's less about institutions and authority - it's more about you attacking them. People eating up firehose of bullshit from YouTube influencers, or regurgitating nonsense about "chemicals" and processed foods, etc. don't stand on the side of any institutions. But if you try to disabuse them of their false beliefs, most people around you will side with them - not because they're loyal to the same institutions, but because you're the aggressor, the party that is not nice, that rocks the boat. It's that behavior, regardless of target or merits, I believe people have aversion to.

Or put in another way: the first person in a group to get agitated about something has to spend a lot of effort justifying their agitation to the group, because by default, the group won't support or even stay neutral - they'll get weirded out, and/or even shun the agitated person.

”regurgitating nonsense about chemicals and processed foods, etc”

That is not nonsense — you are doing yourself a huge disservice here by ignoring ideas categorically on ideological grounds.

I would like to know what they were right about regarding chapstick usage...

Pretty sure he meant chop.

Damn I really really want to know which.

could be lip balm addiction. It's a thing apparently

I'd still say you surround yourself with... mediocre incompatible folks to keep things polite, a friend is a too strong and overused word that should actually mean something.

A lot of people, I'd say most, desperately want friends and will take quantity over quality anytime. Beggars can't be choosers? It works till it doesn't, and life brings SHTF situations from time to time. You can do serious compromises just to keep them, but I wouldn't call that a proper friendship. Freedom of mind and action that certainly isn't.

I'd take 1-2 good friends with similar life views over an army of acquaintances anytime. But that's me. Its extremely hard to find them, most of childhood friends don't qualify since we end up very different and sometimes incompatible people. And nobody is perfect, neither me nor you, so its good to keep it just a bit humble within all that.

Psst. Anonymous leaks with hard evidence (that doesn't lead to you) is best

That only works when the fraudster already have enemies at the top who are happy to weaponise any anonymous tips about wrongdoings. Otherwise they will be ignored and forgotten, and in certain cases a witch hunt for the traitor inside will be started.

Well, duh, speaking out non-anonymously also has a witch hunt, it is just a very short one.

IMO the witch hunt is a feature.

If you are dealing with sociopaths of this degree, and institutional tolerance of them, you should have VERY ACTIVE plans to divorce yourself from the situation.

Witch hunts frequently only bring the malfeasance to light and accentuate the magnitude of the problem to the social network associated with the sociopath.

Sociopaths and sociopathic organizations function either on outright control and fear, or lies and misplaced trust. Paranoia is the weapon against both of those, and especially places extensive stress on the sociopath who is working mightily to maintain the web of lies.

Hmm. I agree it's best to run away as far as possible from these people, but what if they hurt you and you seek revenge?

Exactly, if you call them out, they’ll paint you as a mean jerk, and discredit you.

I blame the society that elevates hurt feelings above truth.

It's not the hurt feelings that are elevated, it is the direct personal attack that is elevated.

They’re only considered attacks if feelings are “hurt” in the process. An “attack” could potentially be looked at as constructive criticism, then by some witchcraft, it is no longer an attack.

It’s the classic “if you’re attractive you’re not creepy, otherwise you’re creepy” where attractive is wholly subjective. The GP is right.

==They’re only considered attacks if feelings are “hurt” in the process.==

I don't follow. Someone can "attack" me verbally, but not "hurt" me in any way because I know their attack is false.

Your stance feels like saying a crime only exists if the criminal was successful. Attempted attacks are still attacks even if they aren't successful in hurting someone.

==An “attack” could potentially be looked at as constructive criticism, then by some witchcraft, it is no longer an attack.==

Different people can interpret the same event differently. We see this in politics all the time. When called out, they say "I was just joking."

Exactly, you’re allowed to attack others if you do it indirectly, if you’re sneaky about it. Straight up pointing at someone’s bullshit is considered a direct attack and not OK. Being indirect is not strong enough to get that person out of a position of power.

>Nobody wants to go up against a very charismatic phony in what will almost certainly turn into a battle of wits instead of a battle of facts.

There's a difference between somebody bullshitting at a party and doing so in a professional setting.

I've seen several baffling instances of universities taking years to investigate obvious things and then in the end effectively doing nothing. Like really clear falsification situations that should just get several people fired and other people sanctioned for not noticing.

https://www.science.org/content/article/researchers-plan-ret...

Like here, there's people there who should just be booted from the university. It took two years for anybody to even retract the paper. The professor in question had several black marks for what I'd call fraud, and yet still hold a position at the University of Minnesota. Which at this point isn't the researcher's fault but the university's.

"There's a difference between somebody bullshitting at a party and doing so in a professional setting."

It is, but I would say the people in the former basket, are also likely to be found in the second basket.

Most people bullshit at parties, either by embellishing or by exaggeration. It might not always be about their profession but it is a storytelling technique to make their story more interesting. It's a poor indicator I'd argue.

"Most people bullshit at parties"

Many do, but not most. At least not at the parties I attend. And in my experience, it is a strong indicator. Some might manage, to vent out everything BS at parties, but for most their general attitude about appreciation for truth will show in a private setting just as it will show in a professional one. In the professional setting people just care more about hiding that BS.

It’s their willingness to make up shit to appear more interesting that is at the heart of this. Being interesting or rather, being perceived as interesting, is core to their personality and they think that’s normal, but it is not.

I don’t know about “everybody”. It depends on your circle I guess. I know very few of these people and none of my friends are like that. I don’t give a shit about being interesting and nobody I value does either.

> and other people sanctioned for not noticing.

This is often by design by the fraudster, if one can compromise enough their own governing body, the people in there will need to protect the fraudster out of self preservation.

> Nobody wants to go up against a very charismatic phony

It's not the charisma that's a problem, it's the zealotry, usually driven by uninformed press looking for the right "type" of story.

> They build up cult followings

Which came first? The cult or the charlatan?

> Do you want to expose this person?

Which, in my estimation, is why people usually fail at the task. Your goal isn't to denigrate the other person for being a liar, your goal is to ensure that people can see the truth regardless of their lies. And the very last thing you want to do is engage of lies of your own to pursue the former goal.

I think that in Anglo-American culture it's also usually a faux-pas to confront a 'phony' in casual conversation. I've met lots of phonies in my time, and I feel as though calling them out on their BS stories, even in a subtle way, would have been a bigger faux-pas than telling it in the first place. It makes sense, I guess. Forcing the person to lose face and admit their lie would sour any social occasion.

My gut tells me we need a charismatic pro standup comedian to get out of the political morass. It’s the only profession with an obligation to call out or even transmute BS. Think Jon Stewart, or Gervais at the Golden Globes, but kindlier and bipartisan. In science, its often enough just to publish.

> I think that in Anglo-American culture it's also usually a faux-pas to confront a 'phony' in casual conversation.

I think it's typically a faux-pas to call out someone's bullshit/faults/shortcomings in mixed company in most situations. It's also not very likely to result in anything constructive or make you look good. Sometimes the truth just needs to be said, but generally you're better off telling people that truth in private or (when it really matters) raising concerns with someone who can do something about it.

Calling someone out in public is high risk with little benefit. Rolling your eyes, biting your tongue, and letting someone dig themselves into a deeper hole is usually a smarter move.

Even harder when people want to believe the lie (recycling, magic diet pills, etc.)

Doesn't the charismatic phony lives in a society where most people. are just barely making it by?

Advertise publicly how huge of a fraud this charismatic phony is.

Look towards the deep south in the early 1900s for how many charismatic phonies (as well as unfortunately many innocents) were treated: lynch mobs, property destruction, exile on fear of permanent injury or death.

It's a worthy model.

This is one of the reasons I left academia. I never wanted to lay down when one of the demi gods profs was having a toddler fit.

An example was when I was a phd student and He came to us to discuss what we were doing. I told him that I was doing simulations and neutral networks in physics (mid 90s'). He laughed and said that this is for the weaker/dumber ones, the ones who can't do theory. To which I said that indeed, this requires to be actually intelligent, not just pretend like the ones who do <his topic>. I looked him in the eyes with a "wanna go that road, pal?" kind of eyes.

Long story short, my phd defense was done when he was on vacation :)

great comment. As an example, you don't need to look further than tiny IG fraudsters either, they're so obviously grifters/liars but their comment sections are filled with (likely paid) sycophants. Detractors are torn apart before their comments can gain traction. Honest folk don't have the time or resources to do fraudster takedowns. For fraudsters that's their entire business model

I have worked with a few people many on here would lionize, and the tendency to exaggerate their accomplishments and selective amnesia wrt crediting anyone else were common to all of them, which is how they maintain their status. It is so pervasive at the top of some tech spheres I honestly wonder if it is necessary to get there.

Ironically some of the best to directly work with have been famous assholes or completely obscure.

It probably is.

Really, we should look down on adoring people too much. It’s one thing to respect and admire accomplishments of other, and another to become a sycophant.

I got to meet and work with many of my programming heroes. I expected the same. Instead they were, to a person, understated and very patient explainers. I feel genuinely grateful 25 years after the fact.

I envy you!

The one I lionize that I suspect is legit is Jeff Dean, partly because he has had that same colleague over the years (Sanjay Ghemawat), but he has also made what can be argued to be mistakes (the hashing in leveldb) which are in areas that probably have no objective right answer. I am intensely suspicious of those that have apparently perfect track records.

> What I find puzzling is that the behavior is usually obvious to all, Yet, it'll take years before they're found out.

Because the system is working according to plan.

Academy takes at least 30% of each grant that this people can suck from private investors or government.

Scammers have the talent to bring grants efficiently, because they just can fake the work or appropriate others work, and sell brilliant results that never happened. Universities are extremely pleased to have this people in their teams, as long as they keep bringing money and prestige. Politicians love them also, because everybody likes to be in the winner's photo.

If problems arise, they will just act shocked. Detach themselves from the scam, and apart of a small scandal that will last for a week, this is all the negative consequences for them. A real bargain. Academy has plenty of new people to select and find several replacements that fit in the new zeitgeist and keep bringing grants.

This money is also a life-saving for young researchers under the umbrella of the big charismatic boss, that just use them and lie about their own merits. Is either accepting the crumbs so they can keep a career while wait for their day, or going home.

Sounds like a classic missing stair situation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missing_stair).

TIL, thanks!

Interesting. Have definitely come across this phenomena in technology.

I never considered that a new social phenomena would emerge from a BDSM blog.

Fringe cultures and communities are often a fruitful source for the mainstream, albeit often at the fringe's expense. See for instance the massive influence queer culture has had on hereronormative society, African-American on white American, etc.

It's easily enough explained by taking it as an assumption that most people are driven primarily by self interest. Remaining to neutral to positive towards an influential charlatan gives all sorts of opportunities for personal advancement and benefit.

Working to out them requires work and yields an outcome that's going to be somewhere between neutral to highly negative for you. Because it's entirely possible you'll fail, and now you have a "star botanist" with 0 values, who's likely out to get you. Note the article mentions that he had already been investigated following whistleblowing by no less than 8 peers in ~2021. A probe of his activities revealed "insufficient evidence" of misdeeds.

It's very easy to fabricate data but extremely difficult to prove with all sorts of means of plausible deniability ranging from randomness to human error during experimentation.

I had someone like this for my advisor. Everybody knew they did terrible science and most of it was made up but they just kept getting away with it for reasons I'll never understand.

Far from being looked down on they were promoted over and over again and praised for their high output regardless of how pointless and meaningless the actual papers were.

Consider that this may be hard to do. Especially if it is someone in a position of power over you, if it could affect your own job/position, etc.

It's not exactly easy either to take it upon yourself to be the "usurper" (for lack of a better word).

Most people expect that eventually the person will be found out. My experience is that they are, it just takes longer than expected. In the meantime, lots of people know the person is a fraud even if it's not out in the wild so to speak.

It seems about right.

I was in a situation with some similarities once. There were several factors that protected the person:

1. They were charismatic, charming, and likable. Fun to be around. But they also had an angry/mean side that started to come out when things weren't going their way. People around them were trained to do things that brought out the fun side and avoid things that brought out the mean side.

2. They built their circle out of people who were impressionable and had a lot to gain by being part of the circle: Early career people, people desperate to climb the ladder, and people who wanted a lot of praise. There was an implicit understanding that as long as you didn't rock the boat, you just had to put up with everything for a couple years before pivoting to your dream position. If you exposed the person, your own resume might look questionable, so you had to go along with it.

3. Anyone who actually questioned them was marked for destruction. They would do everything in their power to discredit you, undermine your work, interfere with things you were doing, argue against promotions, and otherwise bring your career to a halt. It was all done out in the open, as a warning shot to anyone else who questioned it. People notice.

For a famous example, look into the Lance Armstrong story. He didn't just cheat, he tried to destroy the lives of anyone who might get in his way. He's a charismatic celebrity, so to this day he continues to whitewash his history by being nice and likable. Even after everything that has been revealed and admitted, people will still jump to his defense by substituting a lesser narrative and defending that. The common defense is "Yeah, well, everyone in cycling does doping!" even though doping is one of the least concerning things Lance Armstrong did.

Another upsetting factor is that people develop parasocial relationships with these grifters and will go to great lengths to dismiss or downplay their problems. Look at the recent issues with Andrew Huberman for a good example. Not only has his grasp of science been called into question on many topics, but his personal life has been exposed as being quite different than the ultra-righteous fatherly figure that he plays on his podcast. Yet despite this, people who love his podcast will rush to his defense and try to downplay the problems. Like the above story, people try to downplay the revelations about his personal life as if he made a mistake and "cheated on his girlfriend", when the actual allegations are more far-reaching and establish a chronic pattern of dishonesty.

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