Since only a small increase would price a large number of people out of the market- it seems logical that housing can't really increase in cost/value over long time spans, but must track the overall economy almost exactly.
Since only a small increase would price a large number of people out of the market- it seems logical that housing can't really increase in cost/value over long time spans, but must track the overall economy almost exactly.
A hundred years ago it took much more labor to produce enough food to feed a person. Before the industrial revolution let's say 90% of all people were farmers. In 1850 in the US that was maybe 50% of all people were farmers. So the % of GDP going to food was much higher. Now 1-2 people can feed 100 in the west. That means less of your income proportionately goes to food.
Similar declines in the amount of labor required to produce a thing are happening in manufactured goods. So it may have once taken hundreds of hours of human labor to build a car, but now it takes much fewer.
So the wealth of everyone is going up faster than the supply of desirable land. That does mean people are getting priced out. But also people find ways to live on less land. Before the industrial revolution most families needed a farm to survive. Now many, many families can live in an apartment building in a city that takes way less land.
"Buy land, they're not making it anymore." — Mark Twain
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/10/01/the-numbe...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/10/smaller-n...
> Median new-home sizes are at a 13-year low.
https://www.mihomes.com/new-homes/texas/greater-san-antonio/...
https://ginngrp.com/for-sale/parkhouse-vista/
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/812-24th-Avenue-S-Seattle...
> The only ones that are smaller are usually townhomes and are even less affordable than the bigger homes I just mentioned they are located near downtowns or other heavily populated areas.
That will not change because the market of people looking to buy a 1k sq ft home on a quarter acre lot in a less populated area either cannot afford the construction costs or the set of buyers interested in that is too small to bet on for a developer.
We are also slowing down the rate we are making land desirable. During the 50s-70s we had massive success by creating suburbs that were connected to city centers. Due to how geography works, new suburbs are further from city centers and inherently less desirable. We have developed most of the geographically appealing regions of the US. The regions that can support more sprawl are seeing growth at a high enough rate that local infrastructure such as schools, roads, water, and construction labor is being stressed.
In the not too distant future we will have climate change that will displace people and a declining population that will reduce housing demand. Combine that with new building techniques/materials and in 100 years the housing situation will be totally different than today.
God damn you US ppl dont know how good you got it.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contiguous_United_States
This of course invites the counter argument that the US coastal areas are just as dense and small feeling as Central Europe.
I grew up in one of the more remote corners when the state population was less than 800 thousand and the local population within a few hours drive was barely a thousand or more..
It should be a country of its own, and might as well could be with the most isolated capital city in the world, but the Austealian Federal govt keep fucking it up, despite it being the real cash cow of the country.
Canada has a couple more km^2.
"We have turned all of the areas within 15 miles of the existing urban development into suburbs, while banning nearly all new urban development, and banning nearly all urbanization of existing suburbs. We've run out of cities to build suburbs around and this seems like a natural limit where a Mad Max style fight for a limited suburban housing stock is our inevitable outcome. This is Basic Geography 101."
That Mad Max style fight has already been won by geriatric white men (PostWar Boys) who paid off their houses 20 years ago, who are now nominal multimillionaires, and whose preferences appear to largely control national, state, and local political outcomes.
1950s: The average new home sold for $82,098. It had 983 square feet of floor space and a household size of 3.37 people, or 292 square feet per person.
2010s: The average new home ($292,700) offers 924 square feet per person (2.59 people per household, 2,392 total square feet) — three times the space afforded in the 1950s.
https://compasscaliforniablog.com/have-american-homes-change...
I suspect it's the same in a lot of places.
Maybe these square-foot-per-person calculations should also include square feet of land.
All these are places children used to go unsupervised, but now mostly don't.
It’s like an outdoor pool, there’s definitely a market but adding a pool can lower your property’s value. Land doesn’t decrease the value of a property, but it can dramatically lower the number of buyers.
I grew up in rural midwest USA. maybe opinions are different elsewhere, but your comment is a bit baffling. Ive never in my life heard someone say "that house would be perfect if it just came with less land"
We both are dealing with biased samples. A childhood friend who is very into the outdoors moved to a rural area and got 14 acres, everyone else moved to an apartment or a house with under an acre. This stuff shows up on migration patterns, and well there’s a reason the Rural Midwest USA is a small percentage of the US population.
So, I agree many people do want a large yard, but revealed preferences suggest it’s a minority opinion.
Despite its rarity a 3 acre lot is rarely worth 3x what a 1 acre lot would be, unless it can be subdivided.
[1] https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=82098&year1=19...
I wasn't born then, so no personal experience and everything I could find pointed more towards 5-10k, i.e. this advertisement
https://i.redd.it/75sc90f58qsa1.jpg
That'd be safely below 100k, inflation adjusted... Actually, maybe that 80k is already inflation adjusted? The number is pretty close
In nominal dollars, a home in 1955 would be under $10k
If you plot house prices against incomes they do a wave pattern which is high at the moment. But they were even higher against income in 1845.
Article here has data from 1845 for the UK https://archive.ph/FRzaA
1.) Go from a single income supporting to a house to multiple incomes supporting a house. This is actually happening, with the shift from single-earner households in the 1950s to dual-income households to groups of unmarried professionals living together as roommates. The preponderance of post-1950s data can also overweight this effect: historically, the norm was far large extended families to live together in one household, and the single-earner U.S. nuclear family was an aberration created by suburbanization.
2.) Have reset points. How can real estate continue to return 7% real returns for 120 years? Well, return 7% for 40 years, at which point your investment is up 15x. Then bomb the house and kill the owner. Then give the land to the guys who helped you kill the owner at a low, low price, help them build a house on it cheap, and start the 7% appreciation calculator over again from a new low baseline. This is also very close to what actually happened over those 120 years, between WW1, WW2, the Russian/Ottoman/Austrian revolutions, the fall of the Warsaw Pact, the Chinese Civil War / Cultural Revolution / Great Famine, and so on.
3.) Have a smaller percentage of people owning houses. The average housing price can absolutely escape the confines of the median income, if the median person does not own a house. The study's use of rent and imputed rent partially controls for this, but the broad answer for "Housing prices can't outstrip incomes forever, can they?" is "Sure they can, if nobody can afford houses."
4.) Have more people. If you're talking the returns to an asset class, and you own all that asset class, and then suddenly there are more people that need that asset, you're going to make money. This, to a large degree, actually happened during those 120 years.
It's the density death spiral. Dense housing gets more expensive (yes, dense housing IS more expensive!), that in turn drives even more density.
The only way to fix it? Promote suburbs and smaller cities. There is literally _no_ other fix.
Dense housing is more expensive. Dense living massively less so.
People in dense cities spend a larger percentage of their paycheck on housing than people in sparse cities ( https://smartasset.com/mortgage/housing-spending-2021 ).
Not true. The cost per foot of construction of a single family home is lower than that of a small apartment building. A small apartment building has a lower cost per square foot than a mid-rise apartment. And a mid-rise apartment building has a lower cost per square foot than a high-rise apartment building.
Taking only construction costs into account, when land is cheap, single family homes make the most financial sense, and dense housing doesn't make sense.
Well, except for manufactured homes. They have a lower construction cost per square foot than single family homes, but when most people talk about density they aren't talking about trailer parks.
That's why I specifically said that a per-unit cost is lower in cities. But units tend to become smaller and smaller over time.
> Taking only construction costs into account, when land is cheap, single family homes make the most financial sense, and dense housing doesn't make sense.
Absolutely.
If your contention is that more housing is bad because it draws more economic activity which raises land values then that’s fair but this is the same as arguing for less freedom of movement. Essentially any nation that adopts your policy prescription is taking a step towards turning into the Soviet Union.
That may sound like hyperbole but that is the end result of NIMBYism and illiberal land use policy.
Dense cities allow employers to get access to a larger pool of workers, giving them a competitive advantage. This in turn makes cities more attractive for workers. Since land area is conserved and people won't commute for much more than 30 minutes, it means cities have to increase the density.
This in turn makes cities more attractive for employers, driving the demand for housing even higher.
Rinse, wash, repeat.
> That may sound like hyperbole but that is the end result of NIMBYism and illiberal land use policy.
There is literally no city in Japan, US or in major EU countries that managed to build its way out of high housing prices. Not a single one.
People still live near infrastructure (although requirements change)
Maybe 1000 years ago, they probably lived near a port, water source and source of food.
Nowadays we have efficient transport with semis and container ships, but I would imagine that there are still things like say power infrastructure, sources of commerce and schools and even internet that make living practical and affordable.
I'll bet as we can do distributed living practically (PV+batteries, wells/septic , starlink and amazon) that maybe more things are possible.
That's exactly the right model. Sparse cities with distributed industry.
Houston (Greater Houston Area) is another such example. It's geographically huge, but most commutes are fairly short. This allows Houston to have faster commutes than NYC, despite having a comparable population, and VASTLY better living conditions.
It hasn't. House prices have been stable for hundreds of years. They're currently being used as financial vehicles, and as another government asset inflation to ward off that pesky balance of accounts reckoning, but they'll be back down eventually.
Rents are different, probably because landlords collude. Or irrational exuberance or whatever. Times when everybody suddenly agrees that housing is worth a lot more, for no particular reason.
Some guy here (https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/sq1pb/graph_of_c...) plotted the 2000s housing bubble vs. inflation-predicted price.
I would say that the fact that we didn't see a dip after the bubble makes it pretty obvious that if you deal in financial instruments around houses rather than houses themselves (including rents), there had to be a lot of money made that never came back. Renters never got a refund of the inflated rent that they paid during the time of those inflated house prices; that seems like it would account for the 6.6% a year that this paper claims as the return on owning housing. Because the buying and selling of houses is ultimately going to be a wash.
That says to me that housing bubbles are required in order to make any money from housing. That money will be supplied by renters and overextended owners who can't buy when prices return to the ground, and can't hold out until the next bubble.
It just went up up up, and the lines would show divergence.
And of course if that chart continued into 2022...
One was the great urbanization post-world wars and the other was the great increase in dual-income households.
But if you factor things out and try to correct for as many variables as you can, housing is pretty "steady state" though the percentage of income directed toward it that's acceptable has crept up somewhat.
Shelter is, like food, one of the few real necessities and so it will be bid up to the point of pain or worse if there is a scarcity.
Of course it can. That’s what productivity means. The value could keep going up even amidst the fraction of incomes being spent on it going down.
Based on prices, you can have roommates, children can live with parents, etc.
Real housing costs could double tomorrow, and people would survive (not happily).
Because my grandparents with their two kids and great-grandma literally lived in a one-room studio in the 1950s, even though they weren't poor. (Grandpa was an engineer for state railways, a good job in 1950s Czechoslovakia.) The toilet was common for 3 households. That was just the standard of living back then. You wanted to be warm, you had to drag coal upstairs from the basement and feed the home furnace. Daily.
In 1964, all five moved to a 3-room apartment, which increased their living space a lot, but it would still feel incredibly cramped by today's standards. It had a separate toilet just for them, though, and centralized heating. No more hauling coal upstairs. Progress!
Of course that those smaller, more primitive apartments were much cheaper than the house built in 2022 that I am now living in, and that is stuffed full with various sophisticated devices.
There are more people than ever and the surface area of the planet hasn't increased.