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Comment by Harmohit | Hacker News Reader

I completely agree. I do not believe that AI is a disruptive technology like computers and the internet was. It will at best be a + 25 % efficiency for business processes - which is awesome and I am all for it. But it is not a game changer that will fundamentally change how things are done.

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As with all disruptive technologies. Uber was 10x better than taxis when it was being pumped full of VC cash, now it's better enough that it's my go-to choice, but not by a 2x margin. AirBnB was 10x better than hotels when it was being pumped full of cash, hadn't realised that people might trash places, and chancers hadn't filled the platform with crap properties, now it's a wash and only another option alongside hotels. Bitcoin, well, lol.

AI looks 10x better than the alternative, while it's being pumped full of VC cash and while we haven't realised all the downsides (because so far we've only seen idealised marketing promises). It'll work out to be an expensive and not much better option.

This won’t age well. Let’s come back in a few years.

How so? I think he's got a point. VC Pumps things with cash, forces them to work well on the surface, and eventually it becomes a thing that isn't so great. Uber pays shit to the drivers and takes a large chunk for themselves. Airbnb is contributing to the housing crisis. What's the problem going to be with AI products 10 or 15 years from now? I think that's a valid question if you look at the history of these types of ventures.

Any prediction of the future is either right or wrong. Yes, some can be really wrong (we'll never need more than 640k of memory) but ultimately a prediction is just a prediction.

Personally, I think AI is in the hope cycle right now. It's new (in an industry that sees very few new things.) I can see it being a useful tool in our belt in the coming years.

But equally, I don't think it'll replace (most of) us. I think we'll use it to be more productive.

Your target market will also matter. We're B2B, and companies don't buy "software" from us, they buy solutions to problems. And that very much includes the ability to talk to a human and have them solve the problem. (The human might use AI to solve the problem)

The point is, this is a large complex future space, and I believe the statement above will age well. AI will move the needle, but at the moment it's future capabilities and effects are also largely speculation.

Or maybe I'm just jaded having seen this cycle a lot, where most fall short, some disappear, amd a few stick around.

AI may take over the world, but we probably need 2 orders of magnitude of cost reduction, plus a significant improvement in intelligence, plus significant global legislative support, for AI to meet the promises being made right now. To be clear, I do think it'll be transformative, I just think it's "internet" level transformative over a career-long time horizon.

25% efficiency gain, but you have to burn the planet to do it.

Is it worth it?

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