I am unconvinced with this log linear extrapolation argument.
But I've got no strong evidence one way or another: it's an extrapolation.
But I've got no strong evidence one way or another: it's an extrapolation.
Perhaps the core prediction here is that AI will reach the capability of an AI engineer in just three years. If true, we might consider that to be the functional singularity, in the sense that extrapolations past that point have little relevant basis.
EDIT: The graph also shows GPT-4 as "smart high schooler". I don't think that's really true. GPT-4 can perform some tasks at the level of a high schooler but is definitely not a smart high schooler in the more general sense. A smart high schooler can get a driver's license and drive a car around better than any AI in existence. And that's just one thing they can do.
What you're describing sounds more like a knowledge base and less like a general intelligence. The high schooler might fare worst on something that requires memorizing an encyclopedia but might fare better on an original problem that nobody has seen before. Was GPT-4o just synthesizing something from its trained data or did it have to do real problem solving?
By the way, looks like this topic/paper had a few other competing posts and one of them got more discussion a few days ago. One thing is sure, these are interesting times in AI.