The past two years have shown that we're more likely than not heading towards a climate collapse.
I see no serious reaction from the markets, which seem to be assuming a business-as-usual scenario economically.
I find this extremely difficult to believe and I don't see people publicly talking about a future with dramatically higher food insecurity and just a higher baseline cost for existing.
What's the deal? Just collective denial?
The typical DCF model of company earnings, at perhaps a 10% (low) discount rate, by 25 years out, those earnings are added at ~7% of nominal. At a 15% rate, they are 1.7%. 50 years out at 10% and 15% are 0.5% and 0.03%, respectively.
Anything that happens far in the future will tend to be ignored by current equity markets.
So for the markets the best move is to ignore any pending world altering crisis as in the chance the crisis does. It happen or affect the market as much then the best move would have been to capitalize on the movement created by the crisis.
Making moves in the market now creates a very real crisis for a potential one. If everything claimant alarmist or even the more mild climate concerned happens it’s not clear that it would affect the market as a whole.
On top of this climate moves slow. In such any effect it could have on the market will also be slow allowing for it to adjust. Some losses here will turn into wins else where. Think about all the big companies that are no longer on the market because tech changed the world in ways that were arguably just as big as anything we can think of with climate except some big extreme life is all dead event, which in that case see the top paragraph.
Yes, it will be denied until 1/3 of the US cannot be lived in safely. Then when people from the south start mass-migrating maybe things will change. :(
And why water intensive manufacturing is locating in places like Texas and Arizona is beyond me. I hope when they can no longer operate there the Gov does not bail them out.
It’s hard to point to a particular thing that would be a “collapse”.
It won't be people from the South, it'll be people from the Southwest and California mass-migrating after they run out of water.
>And why water intensive manufacturing is locating in places like Texas
Do you think Texas is all desert? Huge swaths of Texas the size of other states get over 50 inches of rain a year. Plentiful high flow rivers all around make it a perfect place for water intensive manufacturing.
I've always assumed that the cost to build desalination plants along the coast would be peanuts compared to the costs of letting our water supplies dry up and force a mass migration of tens of millions of people. It won't exactly be cheap, but a lot cheaper than the alternative.
The western U.S. is where problems are going to arise first.
Also, actuaries are modeling costs of for example hurricanes, which is "easy" to fit to climate framework. But to see how the climate problems reflect to, say, Nvidia stock price is much harder.