Extracting concepts from GPT-4

The problem is that the macro and micro dynamics of complex systems are intimately linked, making for non-stationary non-ergodic behavior that cannot be reduced to a few principles upon which we can build a model or extrapolate a body of knowledge. We simply cannot understand complex systems because they cannot be "reduced". They are what they are, unique and unprincipled in every moment (hey, like people!).

TFA is about making a tiny bit of progress towards such models. Perhaps you should read it.

The lack of understanding is so profound for LLMs that we can’t even fully define the thing we don’t understand. What is intelligence? What is understanding?

Understanding the LLM would be akin to understanding the human brain. Which presents a secondary problem. Is it possible for an entity to understand itself holistically in the same way we understand physical processes with mathematical models? Unlikely imo.

I think this project is a pipe dream. At best it will yield another analogy. This is what I mean: We currently understand machine learning through the analogy of a best fit curve. This project will at best just come up with another high level perspective that offers limited understanding.

In fact, I predict that all AI technology into the far future can only be understood through heavy use of extremely high level abstractions. It’s simply not possible for a thing to truly understand itself.

Many/most types of neural network such as CNNs are well understood since there is a simple flow of information. e.g. In a CNN you've got a hierarchy of feature detectors (convolutional layers) with a few linear classifier layers on top. Feature detectors are just learning decision surfaces to isolate features (useful to higher layers), and at inference time the CNN is just detecting these hierarchical features than classifying the image based on combinations of these features. Simple.

Transformers seem qualitatively different in terms of complexity of operation, not least because it seems we still don't even know exactly what they are learning. Sure, they are learning to predict next word, but just like the CNN whose output classification is based on features learnt by earlier layers, the output words predicted by a transformer are based on some sort or world model/derived rules learned by earlier layers of the transformer, which we don't fully understand.

Not only don't we know exactly what transformers are learning internally (although recent interpretability work gives us a glimpse of some of the sorts of things they are learning), but also the way data moves through them is partially learnt rather than proscribed by the architecture. We have attention heads utilizing learnt lookup keys to find data at arbitrary positions in the context, and then able to copy portions of that data to other positions. Attention heads learn to coordinate to work in unison in ways not specified by the architecture, such as the "induction heads" (consecutive attention head pairs) identified by Anthropic that seem to be one of the work horses of how transformers are working and copying data around.

Additionally, there are multiple types of data learnt by a transformer, from declarative knowledge ("facts") that seem to mostly be learnt by the linear layers to the language/thought rules learnt by the attention mechanism that then affect the flow of data through the model, as discussed above.

So, it's not that we don't know how neural networks work (and of course at one level they all work the same - to minimize errors), but more specifically that we don't fully know how transformer-based LLMs work since their operation is a lot more dynamic and data dependent than most other architectures, and the complexity of what they are learning far higher.

Yup, ANNs have only been around since the 1950s... Brand spanking new

So, what you're saying is we don't know how they work yet? It's not that deep.

Without the 300k starting salaries. I imagine that is a stronger incentive.

It's the users of the LLMs that want to launder repsonsibility behind "computer said no".

If a "cure for cancer" (cancer is not just one disease so, unfortunately, that's not even as coherent a request as we'd all like it to be) is what you're hoping for, look instead at the stuff like AlphaFold etc.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaFold

I don't know how to tell where real science ends and PR bluster begins in such models, though I can say that the closest I've heard to a word against it is "sure, but we've got other things besides protein folding to solve", which is a good sign.

(I assume AlphaFold is also a mysterious black box, and that tools such as the one under discussion may help us demystify it too).

mild followup question: any alpha to be gained from training the same SAEs on two different generations of GPT4, eg GPT4 on march 2023 vs june 2023 vintage, whatever is most architecturally comparable, and diffing them. what would be your priors on what you’d find?

I really don't see it like that—it has very little memory, it has no ability to introspect before "choosing" what to say, no awareness of the concept of the coherency of statements (i.e. whether or not it's saying things that directly contradict its training), seems to have little sense of non-pattern-driven computation beyond what token patterns can encode at a surface level (e.g. of course it knows 1 + 1 = 2, but does it recognize odd notation/can it recognize and analyze arbitrary statements? of course not). I fully grant it is compelling evidence we can replicate many brain-like processes with software neural nets, but that's an entirely different thing than raising it to a level of thought or consciousness or self-awareness (which I argue is necessary in order to appropriately issue coherent statements, as perspective is a necessary thing to address even when attempting to make factual statements), but it strikes me as a lot closer to an analogy for a potential constituent component of a mind rather than a mind per se.