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If most of those projects would never even have started if they didn't go Agile, is it survivorship bias?

Not implying it is true, but there is the possibility that Agile allows you to fail early, fail more often, lose less money, try more things, maybe?

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Alternatively, if you can get clear requirements up front, your 3x more likely to "succeed".

Fun fact: I once talked to a pmo person who claimed that 95% of their waterfall projects finished on time and under budget (but only if you include the avalanches of change requests that were approved 8p% of the way through, a time that somehow corresponded with the software going into test)

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