There are claims that Nvidia will go bust like how Cisco did, but I think Jensen Huang knows what he is doing.
He claims that Cisco lost all its value because their HW was commoditized. I mean in some ways, sure, but the fall in value was almost entirely driven by the DOTCOM bubble bursting.
There is also a claim that networking equipment is easy, "it's just moving data around". Moving data around is what a computer does. LLM's and GPU's are just moving data around.
Did you know? Every gold rush in history has ended.
If you have a shovel factory that burns millions of dollars a day to sell as many shovels as you can, and you're not prepared for people to give up on digging for gold, you're going to very suddenly start burning your profits.
And AMD and Intel might wake up from coma too.
Though Nvidia is trying to pivot towards more cloud and software solutions. Let's see.
What shovels are Apple and MSFT buying to make their own chips?
I mean, who is making Apple's and MSFT's AI chips? I'd buy their stock.
That being said, Nvidia is particularly well positioned to continue reaping the reward of serving the high-performance-compute market. CUDA is yet-unparalleled, and NPUs/TPUs are still struggling to make a case for themselves. If we get another cryptocurrency-style bum-rush on number crunching computers, I don't think anyone except Nvidia will be poised to immediately benefit. General-purpose GPU compute is in short supply on consumer systems, everyone wants the cloud and the cloud wants Nvidia.
https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/7800.jpeg
When you invent a whole new class of device, of which you have the best and market-leading implementation, often that class device isn’t going to stop being useful, and if you are good at your job then you often won’t have to relinquish having a large share of the resulting market.
There’s really a whole little epistemological bubble that’s forming here, with the people who insist that everyone else must only like it because they think it’s general AI, therefore there must be a collapse coming, because it’s impossible there’s any real value delivered, etc. And the alternative hypothesis is… you’re wrong and there’s something here, and people don’t particularly have blinders on about the potential anymore than you do, they just see the value where you don’t. It’s the same group of people who were butthurt about IP infringement and deepfakes and all the rest who are the most absolutely sure everyone else is an idiot who believes it’s general AI and it’s all a big bubble that’s going to come crashing down. It’s become an article of faith that’s stronger and more real than the fake sentiments it purports to oppose.
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/books/28conserv.html?_r=0