The reality is, fizz buzz got us 75% of the way there. It turns out when pressed, a lot of people can't write code. Yes, there's false positives, but there's also people brute focing their way through via copy & paste.
This doesn't manifest as a person who can't do any task, just as a person that's slow, delivers weird abstractions, and would take a lot of your time to get anything useful from.
But those people are also making those arguments, because, as you said, there's hundreds of thousands of dollars in it.