Ergo I think the large shift will not be from jobs to no-jobs, but from jobs to entertainment-based jobs. In a world where everyone’s basic needs are met, the result is an attention-driven economy, not no economy.
Ergo I think the large shift will not be from jobs to no-jobs, but from jobs to entertainment-based jobs. In a world where everyone’s basic needs are met, the result is an attention-driven economy, not no economy.
There is and always will be better and worse property around this unique globe. This will be exacerbated by climate challenges. An AI enhanced country will simply take control of desirable property of another weaker state, with predictable outcomes for the humans involved. The assumption that "we" will just get past that transition is a rich one, that is, one only a rich person can make.
And that, in and of itself, is dystopian.
Furthermore, there's far more inequality in "entertainment-based jobs" than other types of work. Everyone can't be an influencer, period, and it should be blindingly obvious to anyone who's lived in the world that not everyone can be an entertainer.
> In a world where everyone’s basic needs are met, the result is an attention-driven economy, not no economy.
"AI" will not bring us to "world where everyone’s basic needs are met." We lack the ideological foundations for that (and if we had them, everyone's basic needs would already be met. It's far more likely that we just get a bigger homeless problem, with people trying to scrape by living in sewers (like they already do! https://www.nzz.ch/english/the-misery-of-the-homeless-in-las...).
I am easily able to spend 24/7 consuming content that I like - and I have very specific niche tastes, but even there enough content exists basically until the end of time.
I could see this work if we develop even more exotic and creative tastes, creating even more hyper-specific niches and tiny communities around them.
yukYou recon? I think most of this today is algorithmic, while for most of the 1900s it was effectively a lottery.
> Ergo I think the large shift will not be from jobs to no-jobs, but from jobs to entertainment-based jobs. In a world where everyone’s basic needs are met, the result is an attention-driven economy, not no economy.
Peacocking will still be thing[0], but I don't expect it to go the way you describe.
Even with your assumption, we cannot all be creators. At best we can signal to each other how "refined" we are, that we "have good taste", but we'd already passed from the age of writing poems or playing instruments as a primary way to woo others to one of sharing mix-tapes before I was born (and from mixtapes to playlists now).
Instead, I think we may have a world where the super-rich pay for humans to be valets to show they can afford it, where those humans themselves are "forced to get by" with robots who do a better job of it, in much the same way and for much the same reason that a $20 Casio F-91W keeps better time than a $20k Rolex or a $200k Omega (and of course, your phone or smartwatch is constantly syncing with someone else's atomic clock).
[0] and indeed, I think this is the only correct argument for the claim "AI can't ever make art": to the extent that the point of art is to be an expensive signal (rather than merely "pretty"), then AI can only be that when it's unaffordable.
I think the conflict between "is art the signal" or "is art the stuff" is a similar pattern to the arguments over "if a tree falling when nobody is around to hear it, does it make a sound?" being secretly about "does 'sound' mean the vibrations in the air or is it your qualia caused by that?"
The sea shift will come When people on both sides (not just the influencer side) PREFER multimodal AI to dumb texting. And then you don’t need the human model herself anymore because the AI model is far more versatile (in commercials too).
Followers and engagement is a gameable metric, so expect capitalism to slowly favor AI in everything.
If an AI model can ingest millions of publicly available videos and back up its points with the best B-roll and clips, it can also convince better than a team of 3 people. Even if its argument is bullshit. As you said, it’s not just about truth and results, it’s about follower counts and clout!
So it’s not just about losing jobs, it’s also misinformation at scale, across many accounts. Enjoy the brave new world!
I am talking about only what’s there NOW and possible with CURRENT technology.
> platforms will have already implemented real-identity features
FB already has this, in theory, but that doesn't stop people scamming with it. Those policies didn't even stop people organising a genocide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook_content_management_co...
> Remember that the platforms themselves don’t benefit from AI content dominating everything and are pretty incentivized to ensure that content is from real people.
These platforms themselves are AI. Even when the posts are made by humans — and posts don't need to be "real time" nor do they need to be video — the feed is algorithmic to maximise your attention, and the choices of which advert to stick in front of your eyes are chosen algorithmically to maximise revenue… and even before the use of LLMs for copy and diffusion models for images, the ads themselves are AB tested by the businesses to see which have the greatest effect.
"slop" being the key word. I remember when all 3D animation was "slop".
But even ignoring technological progress, lots of people have regularly criticised mass media for being "slop", and yet the masses keep eating it up — the other side of that coin is that even if we had an AI that was essentially a perfectly sublime artist, I'd expect it to go like this: https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/ai-12
The future of media is even more personality-driven than it is already.
The feeling is already found to exist entirely independent of the reality: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasocial_interaction
The AI-replacement theory just doesn’t line up with how online trends and social behavior actually works. Creators become popular because they are relatable, are charismatic, etc. not because they have a formula that can be replaced by a machine.
https://youtu.be/ZygApeuBZdk?si=6rRDvAncOoiO4cEo
And then technology proceeds to trounce humans and it turns out that people dont want London Cabbies to have “The Knowledge”, they’re totally happy with an Uber driver to mindlessly follow the GPS routing system which knows far more about traffic. And then a self driving car which never has any social issues and can regale you with anything you want during the drive, stay silent or play you any movie. Did you ask your parents for most subjects or ask google? People overestimate how much their special idiosynchrasies are needed by other people. They just want to get in, get out, and get what they want.
This was a year ago: https://nypost.com/2024/03/26/lifestyle/im-a-model-whos-so-h...
https://medium.com/@blinx/combating-the-proliferation-of-soc...
https://futurism.com/ai-generated-influencers
And if you add partially AI-produced content, such as automatic clips translations b-roll and edits etc. it becomes even more content that’s AI produced.
People expect that increasing level of production value, and soon they will treat human influencers the same way they treat, say, a picasso painting vs DALL-E. The Picasso painting is just there, it can’t crank out what you want every minute. So it is a curiosity. But not where you get most of your news or whatever.
All the qualities you mentioned can be replaced by a superstimulus and most people will come to prefer it the same way birds prefer rounder fake eggs to their own eggs, and even kick their own eggs out.
As for where they will get the content? Where does news on twitter and telegram appear from? Crowdsourced news from everyone having a cellphone and then everyone discussing what they just uploaded. Citizen journalism. Just summarize a freaking forum and you have a podcast in all languages recorded in whatever voice and hottest anchors you want. And they can then also tell you anything you want to know in the “would you like to know more?” fashion of Starship Stormtroopers, if it had been a thing LOL. And sell you far better because they can give you individual attention and remember preferences of millions of people and your friends. And solve the two-sigma problem for educating students. Results will matter for parents. This next generation will grow up with AI friends and tutors, and will not want human tutors — for most subjects ! Let’s hope this next generation will still want human friends.
Here’s what I think is more likely: phone and camera manufacturers implement a way to track if a photo is taken from a camera in real life or not. Social media platforms do the same thing. AI content continues to exist but is not implicitly trusted, similar to the way we perceive photos today (but didn’t 50 years ago), in that they can be Photoshopped.
Life continues on mostly as normal.
Much as I would agree that quoting a Marvel film is not a useful thing… the same quote exists for real-world examples like playing Go, or the game of Diplomacy.
> Life continues on mostly as normal.
The one single thing I'm confident of, is that "normal" will mean something completely different.
I have only the vaguest beliefs about what that difference might look like, but the status quo absolutely isn't stable.
Even the mere existence of the web upon which social media runs, is a thing which I lived through, a thing where I remember the before times; a time with film stars sure, but no online influencers. It wasn't a magic time without issues (there were, and remain, many problems with everything), but today would be considered a wild sci-fi fantasy compared to when I left secondary school, what with us all carrying GPS trackers because they were too cheap to not include in the phones we use to make too-cheap-to-meter video calls, which we use to share clips of cats being silly or how nice our lunch seems.
There was no single moment in my life where I thought "this changes everything", but all those small changes added up and we don't live in the 1990s (or 80s) any more. The home computer went from a Commodore 64 playing Jet Set Willy to a Performa 5200 playing Marathon 2 and giving me a dial-up modem, but the games were still just games and the 56k modem struggled with everything and only connected at 8-10 kbit/s; I went to university and got a direct ethernet connection to the UK academic backbone and VOIP reached the consumer market but I had nobody to call; I eventually got a mobile, first a Nokia 6210 then some random colour screen feature phone then a Nexus 5 etc., but none of the individual transitions or upgrades really felt worthwhile, they were forced by the hardware breaking, and yet my iPhone SE 3 is clearly more capable and can enable things that were simply not possible on the 6210.
AB testing on how humans respond to it.
> It will be entirely disconnected from culture and therefore not be compelling to viewers in the first place.
1. Not disconnected: at such a point, the AI is the culture.
2. Your use of "therefore" does not work even absent #1, for the same reason that drugs are compelling irregardless of any connection to the culture in which they are consumed.
> Creators become popular because they are relatable, are charismatic, etc. not because they have a formula that can be replaced by a machine.
Virtual bands predate me by a generation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alvin_and_the_Chipmunks
And the music itself has been following a formula for about as long: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pidokakU4I
And charisma is… well, an LLM is going to be better at the personal touch when you've got too many fans to keep track of as a mere human, which is what, a few hundred? After that point, you're going to be giving vague non-specific platitudes no matter what. Things like this (the response to "As charismatically as possible, respond to a star-struck fan email"): https://chatgpt.com/share/41bf083f-7a37-444f-84f3-ab99a9caf9...
Thing is, that actually works: we know it does, because a performer can come on stage and say "Hello Wolverhampton!" without giving any of the audiences' names and be cheered rather than booed off (assuming they're in Wolverhampton, obviously); and also from the example of horoscopes being a thing that people enjoy despite dividing the world up into 12 boxes and then having to make a vague platitude that could fit anyone.
I don’t think large corporations are under the control of humans anymore, haven’t been for >50 years.
Our entire economy is controlled by non-human intelligences
Not only that but Instagram — owned by FB - is totally being overrun by AI-produced content. Including, for instance, digital models and women, they’ve solved the fingers problem. In a way it’s good because women will no longer aspire to show off their body to many strangers, and AI will generate whatever the audience wants instead.
This was a year ago: https://nypost.com/2024/03/26/lifestyle/im-a-model-whos-so-h...
https://medium.com/@blinx/combating-the-proliferation-of-soc...
https://futurism.com/ai-generated-influencers
And if you add partially AI-produced content, such as automatic clips translations b-roll and edits etc. it becomes even more content that’s AI produced.
The only one I've seen that gained any significant following is Neuro-sama, and that's largely thanks to Vedal's own constant involvement, during streams, in trying to improve her, by coding plugins to interact with games, training her, and combining different models (text and visual) and having her interact with chat and himself.
Essentially Neuro-sama is more of an extension of Vedal, and wouldn't exist without his efforts. Also half of what makes her entertaining is the banter between her and Vedal. He's a great straight man to her wacky sayings and non sequiturs.
Not saying there won't eventually be some big AI influencers, but I don't see them taking over anytime soon, or even most people prefering them to actual people even when they do become widespread (there will still be enough that do prefer the A.I. that I believe there can be a few that have big followings though).
I think for the most part it will remain pretty niche, though. I watch Neuro-sama sometimes, but I watch content with actual people far, far more often (Neuro/Vedal is like ~0.1% of all the content I watch right now, while I could be watching most or all of time, as there's quite a few archives on Youtube/Twitch...but I don't).
Also I'm assuming by making this claim you're aware of more than just Vedal/Neuro-sama, so I'm curious which AI influencers you're thinking of that have such massive followings.