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Comment by s1artibartfast | Hacker News Reader

Strongly disagree. That is an additional factor, but doesnt change most of the factors I mentioned. It doesnt change population or urbanization. It doesnt change the cost of labor or materials.

Underutilized RE is a red herring.

As long as construction costs remain high, supply remains low, and there are enough buyers that afford the price, you wont see changes.

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Monetary expansion underlies and significantly influences if not drives, everything you mentioned (save the nature of US mortgages, which is still related in the sense of it being a part of financialization of as much of American life as possible). The QE boom drove immigration, and low interest rates drove hiring and wage inflation; the COVID bust dampening immigration, and the extremely low interest rates driving a hiring frenzy that was itself followed by mass layoffs when the FRF was raised, essentially proved this.

>Underutilized RE is a red herring.

So you've stated. Please prove it, at the very least showing how RE isn't underutilized (this is going to be difficult, because it is).

I agree expansion is an influence, as it impacts just about everything. It you look back to my core point, it is that the factors driving real-estate prices are unlikely to reverse in the short term, and certainly not enough to cut prices like the proposed 50% of price.

You would have to have major declines in the first 4 factors I mentioned. good luck unwinding worker salary, population, cost of materials to that degree.

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