Sony Pictures to Use AI to Produce Movies and Shows in "More Efficient Ways"

I don't see much of a difference between both here and that's why the result is nearly indistinguishable.

Everything is derivative nowadays, AI or not. That's even how the schools themselves are structured.

Why can’t AI help us make something fully formed in a month instead?

There is a quality bar for Sony Pictures I assume.

My point is that we constantly invent technology to increase productivity. In this case, all I’m saying is that the cost to make a movie of the exact same quality should decrease with better tools.

Maybe the timeline isn't important to you, but the timeline is the most important thing because it determines whether public companies continue to invest in VR/XR as a money-losing business. If it takes too long to realize this vision it will not be a viable business. Every dollar invested in a technology is a dollar that can be invested in an alternative that returns its investment faster.

Microsoft and Google backed out of AR/VR and they were early adopters. Why would mega-tech companies with "unlimited money" like that back out of the market if it's so promising? Microsoft even seemed to have the B2B/industrial AR market cornered and they just dropped the whole thing. But then again, why should Microsoft spend $10 to make $10 on AR when they can spend $10 on Azure and make $20 selling basic compute services?

Meta is spending 5x more on R&D than it is making back in revenue from its Reality Labs division. This is 5 years after they launched their first consumer device, an eternity in technology. Compare that to the smartphone business where Apple was making wild profits from day one.

It's very important to note just how capital intensive VR/XR is to develop and deliver in a way that's truly reality-bending. The development time and effort is closer to a commercial airplane than most traditional technology products, like PCs that are designed with generally off-the-shelf parts and software. Seriously: Boeing spent $32 billion to develop the 787, Meta burns that on VR R&D in just 2 or 3 years and they aren't selling planes to make up for it.

So, the answer to your question is, absolutely not. These problems won't be resolved in 5-8 years. Too few have been resolved in the past 5. It's just all moving too slowly.

Let's just single out the battery life issue as an example of why these problems can't be resolved fast enough. Apple's silicon is the best product out there for VR/XR but there hasn't been a generational leap in their computing power since the M1 chip. Apple is constrained by the lithography that TSMC can produce so each new generation of processor is in that 10-20% range of improvement. Therefore we can expect their processing to be no better than about twice as fast as their current chips in around 5-8 years. Battery technology won't progress in density significantly between now and then, so what you're left with is the Vision Pro of 5 years from now possibly doubling the battery life or shrinking the battery so it doesn't need to be external anymore while delivering pretty comparable battery life. It's still going to be a situation where you need a big bulky ski goggle thing on your head messing up your hair and makeup.

Finally, we have to talk about sheer market size numbers and just how wildly far off VR/XR is from the kind of numbers you see with smartphones, TVs, etc. You need an almost impossible growth rate that just hasn't showed up even though we're on the third iteration of the market leader's product line, which is sold at a relatively affordable game console-like price.

According to Statista the total size of the XR market installed base is 50 million units as of 2024. They expect the total size to be 100 million by 2026.

Let's compare that to 5 years after the iPhone launched, 2012. Smartphone sales were 600 million in 2012 alone. The global television market is sized at about $250 billion (which is not that bad for devices that have an average selling price well under $1000 and last much longer than a smartphone or computer).

We've seen what it looks like when Apple launches a successful product. The Apple Watch and AirPods were flawed products in their first iteration but we all IMMEDIATELY saw them EVERYWHERE within a year or two of their launch. The Vision Pro is approaching 6 months past the launch date, and it's supposed to be the first immersive spatial computer where you can be productive anywhere anytime, the ultimate movie system for the airplane, the ultimate mobile workstation, and in all my time living in an affluent city with lots of people and going to the airport almost every month I've NEVER seen one in a single coffee shop, coworking space, on the street, on the plane, nothing. Which makes a ton of sense when we find out that Apple was barely able to sell 500,000 of them, and we hear rumors that they are delaying/canceling next year's model.