Check out the 24h chart on https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-t...
The roughly 50-45 Trump-Biden favor briefly flipped to 48-50 but now looks to be reverting to the mean.
The roughly 50-45 Trump-Biden favor briefly flipped to 48-50 but now looks to be reverting to the mean.
Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute.
So does Trump, who is arguably in worse health, even if slightly younger.
So the odds of Biden dying, times the odds of Michelle Obama wanting to run, times the odds of the DNC not picking Kamala Harris—the current VP, times the odds of Michelle Obama actually winning, might work out to 4%?
...uh... I don't even know what to say about that.