I don’t think NVIDIA stock is a bubble, but I do think AI hype is overheated and unless we start seeing companies turning substantial profits from all the NVIDIA hardware they’ve purchased, the purchases will slow down.

To that point, what percentage of their data center revenue came from just Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google this past year? And will those companies, who can afford to drop 10s of billions on hardware, refresh everything with Blackwell?

If enough inference moves on-device or to other hardware platforms, I do think NVIDIAs growth will slow substantially, and sales may even drop substantially over the course of a couple years.