Anduril Is Building Out The Pentagon's Dream of Deadly Drone Swarms | Hacker News Reader

Anduril Is Building Out The Pentagon's Dream of Deadly Drone Swarms

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24 pointscainxinth25 comments

Anduril: "Killing is our business and business is good".

I really hate seeing tech startups "swarm" the military industrial complex. Lots of money to be made now that big war is fashionable again. It is hard move farther from the ethos of making the world better / greener / safer. or "not being evil".

But there is massive money, cool technical problems so solve, and beta testing is killer.

Disarming yourself doesn't yield peace if your neighbors are willing to choose war. You can turn your swords into plowshares, but you don't get to choose whether your competitors do the same. And if they don't...

Historically, safety stems from deterrence. When countries believe that they will gain more than they will lose from violence, conflict ensues. In that sense, having a military force strong enough that no-one would dare challenge existing borders is the most effective way to prevent conflict. Peace is forged by making sure competitors know that they could not win in a war.

Ok, so what you are suggesting is for every power to use an ever increasing amount of power in order to keep the peace? And that there is no such thing as spending too much money right?

We got to have more and more and more.

We may increase the number of nuclear missiles ten hold. or more

And what the US does not win the weapons race. Then will we have achieved the goal of avoiding conflict?

The old speech:

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement. We pay for a single fighter with a half-million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. . . . This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron. (Chance of peace)

No, there is an equilibrium point. Firstly, because as you point out, spending on military means not spending on other things. And secondly, because it takes a lot more military power to launch a successful invasion than to mount a defense, if you're not planning to invade you can usually spend a bit less than your potential invaders. Big defensive alliances can help with that as well. In a world where everyone was sufficiently uninterested or unworried about wars being instigated, military spending would generally decrease over time (and it generally has). While there are some parts of the world that feel they would benefit from mounting an invasion, for ideological or economic reasons, then some level of military spending will occur.

Correct, every resource spent on defense could potentially have been spent elsewhere and we should judiciously think about what capabilities are necessary.

But if you get conquered by a hostile country they'll be happy to strip you of your resources to fuel their war machine, and they won't really care about negative consequences to education and healthcare. Do you think Poland and Korea had much bargaining power to ask Germany and Japan to dedicate less resources towards war and more towards education and healthcare?

Again, you don't get to choose when war comes. If Ukrainians had opted to neglect their defense sector, where would they be now?

I am sure Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, did not have a choice when it came to US military intervention.

Per your logic, all countries in the world must dedicate absolutely all that can be spent on building up their militaries. Because having a strong military is the only possible way to not get invaded, bombed to pieces and/or occupied

This further requires all countries to take all possible action to develop nuclear weapons.

That is the only way they can be safe right?

If 193 countries in the world have nuclear weapons, then there would finally be peace. Well each country would have to continuously innovate and create more lethal forms, and new forms of delivery to stay safe and maintain peace.

> Per your logic, all countries in the world must dedicate absolutely all that can be spent on building up their militaries.

No, they don't the to "dedicate absolutely all that can be spent", they just need to spend enough to deter potential enemies from attacking them. Or, have allies strong enough to offer that deterrence on their behalf.

Better? Greener? Safer?

Sounds like that aligns 1:1 with eliminating Russia and China! :D (And really any humans that aren't in your immediate tribe.) Have you thought this through?

We can achieve peace only with responsible use of power.

We can't achieve peace without power.

Have the biggest stick. Use it responsibly. The idea that anything else will work is naive.

Precisely. Assuming every other actor will behave rationally has proven wrong over and over through out the history.

Do you find that has worked well? Vietnam, Iraq, Libya?

Americans are still part of the most powerful western economy so I guess yes?

Evaluating a hypothetical is hard. I’m glad I’m not an Iraqi though. What a fucking fiasco.

(Not arguing morality just effectiveness).

I actually find it a relief that a startup is disrupting the industry, where Boeing, Northrop and others are less productive and more expensive.

and completely intertwined with lawmakers. even civilian work like the SLS is tainted by those relationships.

maybe andruil will get there one day too, but it'll be a win for everyone if the incumbents and elected officials end up a bit less cozy in the meantime.

I think a much more fortunate way is to reduce how much money is spent on the the military industrial complex by simply buying less weapons.

That is a win for everyone, except the major players in the military industrial complex

I think a much more fortunate way is to reduce how much money is spent on the the military industrial complex by simply buying less weapons. That is a win for everyone, except the major players in the military industrial complex

It's also not a win for people who depend on those weapons for safe. Would the Ukrainians be better off if we didn't have any Javelins and artillery shells to give them? Would Taiwan be better off if a rusted US Navy is no longer sufficient to deter an invasion by the mainland?

Startups aren't disrupting shit. Lol.

Here's the lifecycle of defense. I work in this sector.

Small company invents shit that works. Pentagon loves it. Big defense contractor buys them by making a offer they can't refuse. Big defense contractor also owns the politicians and DoJ review process. Small company product ultimately stagnates.

Rinse and repeat.

It's been going on for decades.

When they say low cost submarines, are we talking small drone submarines, or submarines with people inside it?

""That business model has seen Anduril focus on showing that it can rapidly deliver drones, submarines, and other hardware infused with advanced software at relatively low cost.""

Done submarines. Specifically, the Dive-LD [1], and Ghost Shark [2]. Being uncrewed is a big part of what makes them low-cost: they're not pressurized so they don't need strong, heavy materials to build the hull.

1. https://www.anduril.com/hardware/dive-ld/

2. https://www.naval-technology.com/news/anduril-unveils-ghost-...

I think the secret will be an army of furries, if the drone's CNN only sees cats and dogs you'll be able to outsmart the autonomous drones.

I am glad that Anduril was able to ride into prominence in an industry where old players had lots of lobbying capital/power.

It says a lot about how ridiculously fat that industry is. It’s where young mostly white guys go to retire.

If Anduril gets big enough, one of the "old players" will simply offer to buy them out.

It's usually insane to reject a buyout in the military space. The audience/customer base is limited at the end of day. The military only has so much money it can spend on warehousing toys in event of war which results in a highly cyclical boom and bust for product lines.

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