The abundance of programming is going to allow almost everyone to become a great programmer.
This is so exciting to see and each day programming is becoming a solved problem so we can focus on other things.
My experience with coding with LLMs is that the only thing it's really good at is generating boilerplate that it has more-or-less seen before (essentially a library, even if is somewhat adapted), however it is incapable of the creative thinking that developers regularly need to engage in when architecting a solution for their use case.
Parents problem I experienced -> it gets "stuck" and its limitation of learning loop (humans are always asking why it gets stuck and how to get unstuck), LLMs just power through without understanding what "stuck" is.
For explaining existing corpus, algorithm it does a fantastic job.
So likely we will see significant wage garnishing in "agency/b2b enterprise" shops.
I have seen good programmers dramatically increase their productivity, but I've also seen others copy-pasting for loops inside other for loops where one loop would definitely suffice. We're not quite there yet.
I observe a certain laziness in myself when it comes to certain problems. It's easier to ask a LLM and debug provided code, but I ask myself if I'm losing some problem solving capabilities in the long run because of this.
Similar to the loss of speed in doing mental arithmetic because of calculators on the smartphone.
How do you become a great programmer if you don't really program?
You’ll get a lot of shitty stuff and the profession will get hollowed out losing attraction of the smart people. We’ll be left with low-quality, disposable bullshit while wondering where all the programmers went.
100% of nothing vs 80% of enough.
That's the risk of AI. Not that AI outperforms humans already but that managers believe it does. That and that code writing is the main work of programmers.