In one of the US's hottest deserts, utilities push gas rather than solar
theguardian.com
theguardian.com
So surely the article should talk about the economics (to the grid operator and to the rate-payers) and how it, or a plant like it, affects the average emissions per unit energy supplied by the grid.
The next someone gets excited about installing a shiny new heat pump in a place that can get very cold (which includes parts of Arizona!), remember that its coefficient of performance can get quite low on a cold winter night, that it's really nice to keep one's house warm, that the sun won't be shining when this happens, and that the worst-case grid capacity has to come from somewhere. And, as some Texans can remind you, it really sucks when that energy fails to show up when needed. (Not to mention that parts of Arizona get very very hot and surprisingly humid, too, and the capaity needed for cooling and dehumidification on the worst days also has to come from somewhere.)
To be clear, I'm entirely in favor of calmly and carefully phasing out residential natural gas, but doing so is not at all a free lunch. In places where gas infrastructure already exists, and to the extent that leaks can be controlled adequately, an efficient, low-emission natural gas boiler/furnace is a very nice way to produce efficient heat in very cold weather, and it is just as efficient in very cold weather as it is in more mild weather. Unlike, say, a heat pump. Far too many people who want to phase natural gas out quickly don't consider the tradeoffs.
Edit 2: There are some interesting developments with Gen 4 reactors[1] and hydrogen production, which could theoretically mean during non peak load you could store energy in the form of hydrogen to be burned later, which may make gas fired peaker plants green, but its entirely theoretical right now
[0]: https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12...
[1]: https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/3-nuclear-power-plants-ge...
it does take some special point of view to assert that!
> lacks nuance
yes true, but the topic is valid and widely applicable. The journalist did a bad job of an engineering problem, but maybe an OK job of casting light on this subject.
> as some Texans can remind you, it really sucks when that energy fails to show up when needed.
it is hard to express the irony of the free state of Texas, their impact on economy and their impact on global climate catastrophe, in a few short words. Way to go to paint it in the most myopic terms. Of course you are also right because every life is a personal life, too.
> Far too many people who want to phase natural gas out quickly don't consider the tradeoffs
this is a political situation and a political moment. All things considered, globally, yes it is time for a political change.
This about it ruining their view and lowering market value of what should be the last house they live in.
On a side note - I am very excited about the cost lowering for whole house battery systems. In places like Arizona, and California where I live, we get enough sun that 2 of those can almost ensure the ability to not even need the grid for most people that have space to install the panels.
Ground loop heat pumps are efficient in nearly any climate short of perma-frost. They do cost a lot and I imagine they aren't exactly cost efficient in Arizona, but the technology means heat pumps are viable even in places where the temperature drops below 0 degrees fahrenheit.
The other solution is good insulation so the house doesn't need a ton of heating at night.
Wind is available at night. Solar + battery is available whenever. Battery storage can replace gas peaker plants
> keep everything working reliably under adverse conditions
What adverse conditions are you imagining?
> So surely the article should talk about the economics (to the grid operator and to the rate-payers)
Are renewables + storage not cheaper than gas plants?
> shiny new heat pump in a place that can get very cold
https://www.wired.com/story/myth-heat-pumps-cold-weather-fre...
> https://www.wired.com/story/https://www.wired.com/story/myth...
Which doesn't invalidate the point. If the desired indoor-outdoor temperature difference doubles (say 68F indoors, 30F outdoors changes to 68F indoors, -8F outdoors), then a gas furnace uses gas at about twice the rate (as the heat loss in a house is roughly proportional to temperature difference). And natural gas is easy to store. But a heat pump needs twice the output and its COP drops, so maybe you need 3-4x as much electric power, and electric power is not easy to store. But you can still store gas, and you can connect a peaker plant to the grid, and it all works out, and you might not even need to run that peaker plant very much.
You know what else connects to the grid? Renewables and storage.
Confused by your reply.
With heat pumps, on a cold night, 3-4x normal usage from all the heat pumps is possible, even likely. Maybe worse in places that get really cold and push the limits of the heat pumps (where COP can get quite close to 1).
So the grid needs overprovisioned capacity. One could hook up a lot of renewables, a lot of storage and a lot of inverter capacity to that storage, which is expensive. But this is expensive: batteries are approaching reasonable prices if the get used heavily, but there aren’t extra-cheap batteries for systems that only get used on rare occasions. But there are extra cheap power plants that make economic sense even if rarely used: these are peaker plants.
Yes, it would be nice to have a non-emitting peaker plant, and someone will surely figure this out eventually. But it wouldn’t be shocking if the eventual solution is an ordinary methane-fired plant (or maybe methanol?) where the fuel is synthetic. After all, even with renewable sources, if you actually want to store a whole lot of energy, chemical storage is pretty effective.
And about 50% of that expense these days are labor costs.
And finding enough labor to do what you're describing is currently challenging.
The reasons why you don't see as much small scale (residential/commercial property) solar PV in AZ (or NM, where I live) are different from the reasons why solar is being built quite quickly these days.
The question was not "what would be cheaper to install right now, solar PV or gas?"
You brought up the challenge. It's less of a challenge than adding new gas-powered MWh.
The latter is even more capital intensive, but you probably wouldn't look to hire from within AZ for that project, and so the labor pool gets bigger. You're going to be hire a substantial contractor for a project like that.
The labor for residential/commercial solar PV comes mostly from the local population, and each project is doable with small crews.
So I don't know for sure which one is more challenging. Very different challenges, certainly.
This story is also a good illustration of why local government matters. National races get most of the media attention, but your personal day-to-day is more affected by your local government.
> Republicans expanded their majority on the utility commission to 4-1 in 2022 and have taken steps since then to reverse clean energy mandates. Most recently, the panel voted 4-1 to sunset rules that required regulated utilities to set energy efficiency requirements and get 15 percent of their energy from renewable resources by 2025.
> This story is also a good illustration of why local government matters. National races get most of the media attention, but your personal day-to-day is more affected by your local government.
Arizona is getting what it voted for. At the generation capacity amounts needed to replace fossil generation (a handful of GWs, 15k-20k acres of leased land assuming ~4.5k-5k acres per GW of solar capacity) [3], this is simply a lack of desire and will. Someone else in the thread mentioned peaker plants; utility scale batteries are cheaper than peakers in most (but not all) cases [4] [5].
[1] https://www.politico.com/newsletters/power-switch/2024/02/12...
[2] https://www.eenews.net/articles/can-arizona-revive-its-bipar...
[3] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/US-SW-AZPS?wind=false&s...
[4] https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/12/battery-storage-syste...
[5] https://www.cesa.org/replacing-fossil-fueled-peaker-power-pl...
This infuriates me. They're being oppositional simply for the sake of being oppositional.
Fuckers.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61242
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2024.01.16/chart2.s...
https://www.wri.org/insights/clean-energy-progress-united-st...
https://news.duke-energy.com/releases/responding-to-growing-...
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2024/05/22/huge-1-2-million-pan...
Thermal storage systems have a big chunk of concrete or tank of water under the house which can be cooled or heated by the air conditioning system. Then, at peak power demand times, that hot or cold is transferred to the living space of the house.
It effectively allows time-shifting of power use. It also lets you buy a smaller AC unit, since the AC unit can be operating 20+ hours a day, yet providing more cooling in the daytime and less at night when the need is lower.
Currently such systems cost more due to their novelty, but I am reasonably confident that if hour by hour electricity pricing becomes common, they will soon be widespread (in new builds at least, probably not worth retrofitting).
More complex versions of the same system allow many sources and sinks of heat - eg. they can heat/cool waste water, heat/cool the roof, heat/cool the ground under the house, heat/cool the outsides of the walls or the air outside the house. That means clever software can maximize efficiency - for example by radiating heat to the sky at night, dumping heat into north-facing walls in the daytime. Then, in the winter when it's cold it can scavenge heat from south facing walls.
Climbing around putting panels on top of everything is a lot more work than just putting them in a big field on the ground.
It's not great, but it's probably less bad than a coal-fired plant which is what they imply is used to meet the demand currently. And it's probably significantly cheaper than deploying enough battery storage to meet the demand.
There's also complaints about the location and about the plant being just under the size that would require an environmental review. Those are fair, but the utility is working withing the rules, so folks should really be taking those complaints to their legislature if they want the rules changed.
They couldn’t be bothered.
I often accuse landlords of being financial vampires, sucking as much money from their tenants as they can. This is just more evidence of it.
The real breakthrough for solar will have to come from energy storage advancements, such as cheap neighborhood-scale batteries. This will allow the energy created during the day by solar to be used at night when demand peaks.
For context:
"Arizona households use 66 million Btu of energy per home, 26% less than the U.S. average.
The combination of lower than average site consumption of all energy, but above average electricity which is relatively expensive, results in Arizona households spending 3% less for energy than the U.S. average."
source: https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2009/sta...
So people in Arizona are using a lot less energy than the rest of the country, and only pay marginally less. Someone is making even more money on the energy bill.
And yes, solar is not perfect, and sometimes one needs some extra electricity on the grid (peakers). For a 16,000 household community, maybe batteries should be considered ? It is not like they have an heavy industry requiring high energy consumption 24/7. It is a small community (houses, and RV parks).
For instance, a Tesla Megapack 2 costs $1.5M and delivers 3.854 MWh so to replace the 98MWh gas peaker, we would need 25 x Megabuck 2, for a cost of $37.5M. How much the gas peaker is going to cost ? We can run the cost on maintenance too, which I suspect would also favor the battery solution.
The proposed gas plant is a 98MW gas peaker turbine. The alternative to gas peaker plants for this part of Arizona are pumped hydro and 'cold storage', where AC systems are run during off-peak hours to build up a reservoir of cold.
The Salt River Project (Arizona water/power company) is building a new pumped hydro facility, with a new reservoir uphill from Apache Lake (east of Phoenix): https://www.srpnet.com/grid-water-management/grid-management...
Downtown Phoenix has an 'ice storage' system that generates cold water using off-peak power, and uses this to cool ~40 buildings during the hottest part of the day: https://kjzz.org/content/527332/district-energy-system-under... / https://www.nrg.com/insights/innovation/nrg-energy-center-ph...
Surely there's an opportunity for pumped storage somewhere on the Central Arizona Project, which starts at Lake Havasu (738' elevation) and deposits its water at Lake Pleasant (1700' elevation): https://www.cap-az.com/
I don't believe anyone is actually pro pollution. More likely they stand to benefit financially from prolonged use of fossil fuels before it inevitably gets phased out.
These plants currently do have to be in someone’s backyard.
If we really care about transitioning as fast as possible, we should probably end our trade war with China over solar panels and EVs. “Buy America” requirements for green products will hamstring us.
Rage against it as much as you want, it’ll only delay the green transition
I have a degree in economics, no need for remedial training on comparative advantage and stories of secretaries and typewriters and so on.
Being able to produce the core technology we need for the future is the only way to have a future.
The power and stability of the country is fundamentally based on its productive capacity. Do you think it's based on green pieces of paper or something?
The idea that this is not true is the greatest collective mass delusion of our lifetimes. Or just a good story told by those who benefit from the financialization of everything.
our economy is extremely productive, your narrative of 'good at almost nothing' is ridiculous, we're just not a manufacturing economy.
No you can’t just consider “owning stuff” and “moving assets around on spreadsheets” to be the same thing as international power.
China isn’t confused about this at all and they don’t make idiot mistakes like letting hostile foreign powers own or control the core means of production needed for their population to prosper.
Good luck with your fucking economic planning business when Taipei is being shelled from three directions.
Non-mobile services, like healthcare and hairdressers, aren’t exportable. (And calculations are entirely COL-based; 20% inflation causes a 20% rise in cost of haircuts which causes a 20% rise in their contribution to GDP).
Counting non-tangible, immobile, non-exportable goods is not useful as a measure of productivity.
As for financial services: what do they make. It’s a lot of “value” entirely generated by accounting. There’s nothing tangible backing it; KPMG’s accounts might as well be in cryptocurrency for all that they can be used to materially improve lives. You can’t eat a futures contract and you can’t make anything with a credit default swap. The financial system is all musical chairs.
It's comparable to kerosene lamp manufacturers and kerosene producers trying to block rural electrification because people would use electric lights if they only could get access to them.
Of course, this is why the US government - whose politicians are little more than middle managers for the investment capitalism system - implemented huge tariffs on Chinese monocrystalline silicon PV panels.