Comment by kurthr | Hacker News Reader

Comment by kurthr | Hacker News Reader

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Actually, California population (for example) has fallen by >400k over the last several years. The first falling year was 2019, 2020 saw a small rise (<50k), 2021 saw a fall of >300k, 2022 a fall of ~150k, and 2023 a fall of ~50k.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/states/california...

That includes both births/deaths and in/out migration. Population growth rate has been generally falling since 1990 (except for a peak in 2000) and significantly so since the GFC in 2009. However, prices have skyrocketed.

China has overbuilt their population by 10-100million (yes, and there are even more outrageous numbers) homes over the last 10-15 years, and yet prices in Shanghai/ Beijing/ Shenzhen still exceed NYC or SF by 50%. They have a falling population.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/city_price_rankings?it...

Crowding is huge in California though. The starting point was "multiple unrelated families living in one house." If the population has dropped by 1% but you started with 3 families per house, you still have (to some rounding error) 3 families per house.

China has the confounding issue where it has both poor social security systems and a mistrusted, dysfunctional stock market and financial system, so everyone shoves money into real estate for retirement.

This is not even a new problem. The imperial landed gentry was so named because bureaucrats would shovel their money into land.

A net migration out of California does not mean an increase in available housing. There are a lot of families (adults+kids) where the children grew up and then can’t afford a home in California and left the state. A household of 4 then becomes a household of 2 but the housing supply stays the same.

The price finds whatever level it needs to maintain a population that fits within the housing supply. Obviously population can’t grow that much against a fixed housing supply; once the vacants and spare bedrooms are filled up, people just get priced out. This is Malthusian NIMBY policy working exactly as intended.

Population geography also shifts from rural to urban and from declining to rising cities even as the total population size holds constant or shrinks. The fact that there is space for you on a farm or in a coal-mining town is cold comfort to someone with a STEM degree and a job offer at a corporate headquarters.

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