The risk aversion in product is not a new phenomenon, though. Bigger producers have been following that track since at least the 90s. Adherence to brand, and even more so to basic game genres and mechanics, has been an issue complained about by devs at any big enough studio for decades.
What changed, I think, is all of the development studios being bought up by large producers. But, then again, I see steam as being a great counterforce on this, and the ease of releasing on web or mobile has been a boon for indie devs too. So maybe that hasn't changed that much.
The technology has advanced to where you can spend blockbuster budgets and get nearly film-quality results (not nearly possible in the cartridge and CD days). Meanwhile the price per AAA title has stayed relatively fixed at 50-60 USD for that same range of time, so production houses have had to try being appealing to ever-larger audiences. Fortunately, many people continue playing these games into their 30s and 40s so the market grows on its own too.
I'm trying to say you're right about the risk aversion being a big part of the industry's problems but that's been an issue for a while, it has gotten terribly enhanced with the growth of the industry.
Now I wonder which is worse.. extracting money one quarter a time with punishingly difficult timing tests, or extracting money via cosmetics that have no actual game impact but are marketed very compellingly.