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Belarus will probably be reabsorbed back into Russia in the next 10 years.

I worked with many young IT people living there, when Russia invaded Ukraine, many fled to Germany with the help of the fortune 500 company I worked for. A few were even helped to move to NC here in the US.

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Setting aside Russia’s own motives, is there any way to take the temperature of Belarus’s own citizens actual preferences around this? I gather their elections have been shoddy for long enough that they’re not a proxy for actual sentiment.

Other than a land grab and closer proximity to Europe - what does Russia gain from this?

Putin's ego and desire for the old ways.

Nuclear weapons are all about posturing. Both sides know the consequences of detonation and do everything in their power to avoid it. Thus posturing.

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